Episode #1
第3142期:The peacock effect: Why overconfidence can be good for you
Do you know anyone who is more confident in their own abilities than their actual performance suggests they should be? Perhaps they think they are an incredible singer, but they're actually tone-deaf . Most people believe that they are more intelligent and skilful than the average person, according to a 2020 meta-analysis by Zell and colleagues. Obviously, this cannot be the case. Overconfidence has a cost – it can lead to things like poor financial decisions and dangerous driving. So why do we have such a tendency to overestimate our abilities? 你认识的人中是否有人对自己的能力比实际表现更自信？ 也许他们认为自己是一位令人难以置信的歌手，但实际上他们是五音不全的。 根据 Zell 及其同事 2020 年的荟萃分析，大多数人认为自己比普通人更聪明、更有技巧。 显然，事实并非如此。 过度自信是有代价的——它可能导致糟糕的财务决策和危险驾驶等问题。 那么为什么我们会倾向于高估自己的能力呢？ Excessive self-belief requires self-deception – believing your own falsehoods . An evolutionary perspective argues that humans evolved self-deception so that we could deceive others more easily. The theory goes that if you believe your own lies about your abilities, you're less likely to display behaviours which will give it away , such as nervousness or hesitation . Deceiving others about your abilities may enable you to open doors, but it is when you have to prove yourself that overconfidence can lead to costly mistakes. For those who have a greater underlying ability, though, overconfidence can be highly beneficial. 过度自信需要自我欺骗——相信自己的谎言。 进化论认为，人类进化出自欺欺人的能力，这样我们就可以更容易地欺骗别人。 该理论认为，如果你相信自己对自己能力的谎言，你就不太可能表现出会泄露谎言的行为，例如紧张或犹豫。 欺骗别人你的能力可能会让你打开大门，但当你必须证明自己时，过度自信可能会导致代价高昂的错误。 然而，对于那些具有更强潜在能力的人来说，过度自信可能非常有益。 This is what researchers are calling the ' peacock 's tail for people'. Peacocks have long and brightly coloured feathers to attract females, but they are extremely burdensome . The feathers are heavy and highly visible to predators, so only the healthiest peacocks can afford to carry such elaborate plumage . In other words, their feathers are a reliable indicator of their suitability for potential mates. Authors of a 2026 study, published in the Psychological Review compare this phenomenon with human overconfidence. They argue that only the most capable people can keep a high self-belief without suffering severe consequences. In other words, overconfidence may actually be a useful signal of ability. 这就是研究人员所说的“人类的孔雀尾巴”。 孔雀有长而鲜艳的羽毛来吸引雌性，但它们却极其沉重。 羽毛很重，对捕食者来说非常明显，因此只有最健康的孔雀才能携带如此精致的羽毛。 换句话说，它们的羽毛是它们是否适合潜在配偶的可靠指标。 发表在《心理评论》上的 2026 年研究的作者将这种现象与人类的过度自信进行了比较。 他们认为，只有最有能力的人才能保持高度的自信，而不会遭受严重的后果。 换句话说，过度自信实际上可能是一种有用的能力信号。 So, what lessons can be learnt from all this? If you have a high ability in a particular skill, make sure you have the confidence to match it. Ability can bring success, but remember, it is confidence which opens the doors in the first place. 那么，我们可以从这一切中吸取什么教训呢？ 如果您在某项特定技能上拥有很高的能力，请确保您有信心与之相匹配。 能力可以带来成功，但请记住，首先打开大门的是信心。
