Robert Cahaly: podcast appearances and interviews

Robert C. Cahaly, born October 16, 1969, is an American pollster and the founder of the Trafalgar Group. He has served as a political consultant for Republican Party candidates. Cahaly established the Trafalgar Group in 2016 and gained prominence after the 2016 presidential election for its prediction of Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton. He claimed that Trafalgar’s polling methodology was more accurate than other surveys because it emphasized the weighting of 'shy, pro-Trump' voters, whom he believed were underrepresented in most polls. Cahaly does not disclose the specific methods used by Trafalgar or how it determines the volume of shy Trump voters in the electorate. Leading up to the 2020 presidential election, Cahaly attracted media attention for asserting that Donald Trump would defeat Joe Biden. This prediction was contrary to the prevailing polling consensus and ultimately proved incorrect, as Trafalgar’s forecasts did not anticipate Biden’s win in five battleground states.