
Episode #20
NDC Flatlined: Modern, and Still Renting
Episode: 020 Date: September 7, 2026 Two layers of airline retailing moved this year. One hasn't moved since 2024. The order started leaving the PSS, a machine finally booked a trip end to end, and NDC has sat flat for two years while the industry called it scaling on a number no institution publishes. Where retailing moved, somebody else owns it. Three narratives, one structure underneath all of them. NDC didn't scale this year. It plateaued two years ago, and the number everyone quotes to say otherwise has no source. The 2026 trade-press figure β roughly 24% of indirect sales globally, up from 11% in 2023 β traces to one travel-technology vendor's blog post, attributed to no research firm, data provider or industry body. IATA's own June 2026 Distribution with Offers and Orders fact sheet carries no adoption statistic at all. What does exist is ARC's monthly NDC share of ARC-settled US transactions: 21.5% in June 2024, 20.8% in March 2026, 20.1% in April, 21.6% in May and June, 21.2% in July. Two years inside a two-point band, and the only audited series in the industry. Critical take: the plateau is the disintermediation thesis reporting its own result. Share stopped climbing exactly where growth required airlines to build direct connectivity at scale, and the content routed through the aggregator instead. Every vendor will now sell you an order management system, and that's the warning, not the milestone. The heart of Offer and Order was never the NDC message. It was pulling the order out of the PSS into a system the airline controls, because whoever holds the order holds servicing, settlement and the customer record. In 2026 the OMS became the βgravitational centreβ of retailing, with nine or ten vendors selling one and half the field advertising it's βPSS-neutralβ β while the same coverage adds they're βnot fully independent from the PSS.β The dated deal that shows what that's doing to ownership sits one layer over: on June 25, Amadeus published that British Airways is retiring the NDC platform it built in-house on the 17.2 standard, after a decade running it, for Amadeus AltΓ©a NDC on 21.3. Critical take: the carrier that went furthest toward owning its retailing technology decided the vendor should carry the next version. A machine finally booked a trip end to end this year. It did it inside somebody else's policy. For consumer connectors the received wisdom holds: Expedia's connector in Claude searches flights and hotels, returns live pricing and availability, and stops there. But in July, Amex GBT launched the Egencia AI Connector in Claude, which searches, books and manages air and hotel within corporate travel policy β what Amex GBT calls the first deployment of its agent-to-agent architecture. Machine-executed booking didn't start in leisure and trickle into managed travel. It started in managed travel. Critical take: an agent can be held to a policy. It cannot be held to a preference. That's why managed travel went first, and why a decade-long push toward the personalised per-traveler offer just met its first machine buyer inside the one channel built to override individual preference with corporate rules. The Bottom Line This is not an industry that can't get started. It's an industry that modernized without renegotiating, then measured itself with a number nobody publishes. A better offer is not control of the offer. A dedicated order system is not independence if the order can't leave it. Being bookable by an agent is not owning the transaction if somebody else writes the rules. One question at every layer: when you buy the modern version of anything this year, what share of the value do you control, and what share are you renting? Get the honest number before you sign. Stories Referenced The NDC plateau and the number with no source https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/july-us-travel-agency-air-ticket-sales-total-9-6-billion-302856518.html https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheets/fact-sheet-ndc/ https://www.travelport.com/press-releases/royal-jordanian-airlines-goes-live-with-ndc-on-travelport The order management system became the category https://travelinmotion.ch/2026/01/06/modern-airline-retailing-outlook-2026-steady-momentum-and-initial-breakthroughs/ https://amadeus.com/en/blog/articles/british-airways-adopting-altea-ndc The machine learned to book, inside somebody else's policy https://www.amexglobalbusinesstravel.com/press-releases/amex-gbt-launches-business-travel-agent-to-agent-infrastructure-debuts-egencia-ai-connector-in-claude/ https://claude.com/connectors/expedia About the Show Produced by V1 Advisory LLC, every Monday. Hosted by Eric Marketts and Steph Nell. Powered by Jellypod.com: https://go.jellypod.com/rQZEXiO Subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Β© 2026 V1 Advisory LLC. | v1advisory.coetter offer is not control of the offer. A dedicated order system is not independence if the order can't leave it. Being bookable by an agent is not owning the transaction if somebody else writes the rules. One question at every layer: when you buy the modern version of anything this year, what share of the value do you control, and what share are you renting? Get the honest number before you sign. **Stories Referenced** *The NDC plateau and the number with no source* https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/july-us-travel-agency-air-ticket-sales-total-9-6-billion-302856518.html https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheets/fact-sheet-ndc/ https://www.travelport.com/press-releases/royal-jordanian-airlines-goes-live-with-ndc-on-travelport *The order management system became the category* https://travelinmotion.ch/2026/01/06/modern-airline-retailing-outlook-2026-steady-momentum-and-initial-breakthroughs/ https://amadeus.com/en/blog/articles/british-airways-adopting-altea-ndc *The machine learned to book, inside somebody else's policy* https://www.amexglobalbusinesstravel.com/press-releases/amex-gbt-launches-business-travel-agent-to-agent-infrastructure-debuts-egencia-ai-connector-in-claude/ https://claude.com/connectors/expedia **About the Show** Produced by V1 Advisory LLC, every Monday. Hosted by Eric Marketts and Steph Nell. Powered by Jellypod.com: https://go.jellypod.com/rQZEXiO Intro music: Lundstroem, CC BY 4.0. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Β© 2026 V1 Advisory LLC. | v1advisory.co






