The Trivium China Podcast

Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture.

The Trivium China Podcast is a news podcast hosted by Trivium China, with 89 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80.

Trivium China hosts The Trivium China Podcast, a news show with 89 episodes published.

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  The Trivium China Podcast

  Ep 89 - Inside China's two-decade campaign to win over Latin America

  Oct 2, 202657 min

  From ports to lithium mines to diplomatic battles over Taiwan, China has spent two decades persistently building influence across Latin America and the Caribbean – one contract, one relationship, one chamber of commerce at a time. Leland Lazarus’s new book – Dragon in the Americas: China’s Power, Presence, and Regional Influence – argues this isn’t simply a trade story. It’s a long game, and China is getting more strategic and deliberate about how it plays it. On the latest episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Leland – Founder and CEO of Lazarus Consulting and author of Dragon in the Americas – to unpack: Why ports are the “lungs” of a country, and why 37 of them across Latin America and the Caribbean are now funded, financed, or operated by Chinese firms Why the region’s own answer to the US-China rivalry mirrors an old Cold War approach from Barbados: “a friend to all, but a satellite of none” The story behind the Panama Canal controversy, and why it’s just the most visible example of a much bigger pattern How Chinese mining firms quietly bypassed national governments and went straight to local officials to lock up 60% of the world’s lithium reserves Why Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies in the region matter so much, and how far China is willing to go to flip them The darker edge of China’s presence in the region: Chinese criminal networks that have laundered an estimated $312 billion through the US financial system, with Latin America and the Caribbean becoming a central node You won’t want to miss this wide-ranging discussion – and make sure to check out Leland’s book while you’re at it!

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  The Trivium China Podcast

  Ep 88 - The Xi-Trump risk nobody's pricing in

  Sep 25, 202637 min

  US President Donald Trump met Xi Jinping on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday – a rare honor last extended to the Pope by Barack Obama. The atmospherics of the greeting and the rest of Xi’s Washington trip were great. The actual deliverables of the visit were more muted. The one concrete outcome from Xi’s Washington visit was a two-month extension of the Busan trade truce, far short of the six-month floor most observers expected going in. On this quick-reaction episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Mazur (Head of Geopolitical Research, based in Beijing) to unpack: Why “healthy competition” is a subtly new phrase in Beijing’s playbook, and what the shift in rhetoric signals US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s cryptic comment that China proposed “a bigger deal” over the weekend, and what that might mean Why AI got an explicit shout-out in Xi’s comments during the bilateral meetings, and how managing the technology is becoming the new arms-control issue of the US-China relationship The risk nobody’s pricing in: If this meeting doesn’t build real momentum, the two follow-up meetings penciled in for later this year may just quietly fall off the calendar Give it a listen and let us know what you think.

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  The Trivium China Podcast

  Ep 87 - Joerg Wuttke: China told Europe exactly how it would beat us. We didn't listen.

  Sep 22, 202651 min

  Back in 2017, China’s former SASAC chairman told Joerg Wuttke, then president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, precisely which industries China’s overcapacity machine would roll through next: EVs, batteries, solar, wind, basic chemicals. Fast forward a decade, and it happened exactly as he predicted. Joerg’s very blunt take: “China, in essence, is kind enough to tell us when and how they’re going to roll over us.” On this episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk, along with co-host Cory Combs, sits down with Joerg – now a partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group – to unpack: Why “China Shock 2.0” isn’t really a shock at all, but a systemic feature of how Beijing plans its economy – which was written out in black and white years in advance The shipping container math that captures the trade imbalance better than any dollar figure: one container now leaves Europe for China for every four that come back Why Wuttke thinks a stronger renminbi, not tariffs, may be China’s real concession on the table before October’s EU-China trade negotiation deadline The key Chinese tech sector Wuttke says Europe should consider closing its market to (and it’s not the one you’d guess) Why demographic collapse, not trade policy, might ultimately be China’s biggest vulnerability – and Europe’s unlikely opportunity This episode is another banger, y’all. You won’t want to miss it!

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  The Trivium China Podcast

  Ep 86 - The weaknesses behind China's booming exports

  Sep 18, 202630 min

  China’s manufacturing output just grew at the fastest pace in six months, but retail sales barely moved last month – and the gap between the two growth rates just hit its widest point in over three years. The upshot: Exports are still picking up the slack. But an increasing chunk of China’s export growth is simply down to price increases, not rising volumes. So even that stalwart economic prop is starting to wobble. On this quick-reaction episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Trivium’s Lead Macroeconomist) to unpack: Why the gap between factory output and consumer spending just hit a three-year high, and why Beijing’s own policy playbook keeps worsening the imbalance The hidden story in China’s “booming” exports: value is up 25%, but volumes for things like semiconductors and appliances are actually falling The one semi-bright spot in the monthly macro-econ data: infrastructure investment is declining at a slower pace (hurrah!) Why Beijing’s new interest-rate subsidy for consumers is aimed at the wrong problem entirely Putting it all together: China’s economy will continue to decelerate into year-end. Give it a listen and let us know what you think.

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  The Trivium China Podcast

  Ep 85 - China’s approach to AI in the Global South: selling the razor blades, not the razor

  Sep 12, 20261h 20m

  Everyone keeps calling the US-China AI competition a race. But Eric Olander, co-founder of the China Global South Project, says that framing is wrong – because a race implies a finish line, and this competition doesn't have one. Eric’s view is that Chinese AI companies aren't necessarily looking to out innovate US closed-weight models. Instead, the goal for China is to become Android to America's Apple – 10% of the profit, but 90% of the world's users. On this week’s episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Eric discusses China’s approach to building AI offerings in the Global South with host Andrew Polk – but only after the two run through the flurry of travel and diplomacy Xi Jinping is undertaking throughout September. The two discuss the implications of Xi’s travels, then turn to China’s AI strategy in the region, touching on: How Xi turned a single stop in Egypt into a four-birds-one-stone diplomatic play, touching on the Iran war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, Africa-China relations, and the dynamics around Xinjiang all at once Why the India-China thaw is real but fragile, and why Xi and Modi's sideline meeting at the upcoming BRICS summit matters more than anything on the summit's official agenda Why China’s AI push into the Global South won’t really be about the models themselves – but about enabling those models with Huawei servers, support contracts, and services sold on top of free, open-weight code Why the "China is less secure" pitch against Chinese AI companies doesn't land in a Global South that trusts Washington about as little as it trusts Beijing Why nobody in the Global South expects much from Xi's Washington visit, and why the mood in Beijing right now is just as hardened as it is in DC Strap in – we cover a lot of ground in this one!

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