The Tanmay Edge | India's pre-market edge, every trading day.

Every trading day, before 9:15 AM, Tanmay Kurtkoti gives you the one edge most traders miss before market open. The Tanmay Edge is a daily pre-market audio brief covering: Key levels, open interest, and GEX data for Nifty & BankNifty. Options flow and derivatives market structure. What institutional money is signalling overnight — Pro vs FII vs Client positioning decoded. The one setup worth watching at open. Tanmay is the founder of QC Alpha ($75M) and RupeeCase India's systematic quantitative investing terminal. He has 16+ years in derivatives and quantitative trading, including prop desk experience. No fluff. No filler. Just your edge before the chaos begins. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream free on rupeecase.com . Follow on X: @TanmayKurtkoti

The Tanmay Edge | India's pre-market edge, every trading day. is a business podcast hosted by Unknown Host, with 0 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80. PitchCentric scores this show on Booking Probability, Listen Score, and live audience signals refreshed every 24 hours.

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  Episode #124

  S2Ep124 | The Writers Swapped Sides On The Last Day, And We Gap Up Onto The Magnet | Nifty Expiry | 15th Sept Tuesday

  Sep 14, 202612 minS2

  Nifty expiry day, and the board that settles today changed sides overnight. On Friday the put call ratio on the 15 September board went from 0.640 to 1.057 in a single session. Puts were added 5.42 crore against 2.58 crore of calls cut. Most of that call cut is far strike housekeeping above 25,000, which always happens in expiry week, so strip it out and look only near the money. Between 22,900 and 23,900, calls added 41.71 lakh and puts added 2.61 crore. Six to one. The near money put call ratio is 1.217. That is the option writers swapping sides on the second last day of a board, and it is a far stronger signal than the headline number. Max pain came down to 23,450 from 23,500, with spot settling 51.90 below it. GIFT Nifty at 23,525.50 is up 82, which points to an open of 23,440 to 23,490. We open on the magnet. The both sides strike moved again. The biggest put add on the entire board was 75.60 lakh at 23,300 and the second biggest call add landed on the same strike, 98 points below spot. Track the migration across five sessions: 23,800, then 23,700, then 23,500, then 23,400, now 23,300. Down exactly 100 points a session, four sessions running. And both sides walked away from 23,500 entirely, calls cut 24.10 lakh and puts cut 19.99 lakh on the same strike on the same day. It still shows 93 lakh calls so it will read as resistance on any screen. It is thinner than it looks. The number of the day is the basis. It went from 6.20 to 87.10, which is 80.90 points of premium coming back one session after 114 points vanished. But futures open interest fell by 3,96,630 alongside. Rising basis on falling open interest is short covering, the exact mirror image of Thursday's long unwinding. The premium did not come back because somebody bought the future. It came back because somebody had to. Breadth has been frozen for three sessions. Friday was 952 advances against 1,644 declines, 0.579 on the advance decline. Thursday, when the index rose, it was 0.56. Wednesday, when it fell, 0.56. The index has swung both ways and two in three stocks have fallen every single session. What is actually moving it: HDFC Bank rose 2.08% on a day the index fell, and its futures open interest rose 1.8% alongside. Price up on open interest up is fresh long money, and it carries the largest stock futures position on the board by value, ₹25,536 crore against Reliance's ₹16,296 crore. Foreign futures shorts went to 2,84,882, another run high, with the book agreeing across all three instruments: short futures, short calls, long puts. Overnight, the round numbers all landed the same morning. The American ten year is at 5.00, named at 4.97 on Friday. Ours is at 7.01. Japan's is at 3.00. Brent is 107.03 after settling 105.68, and the rupee weakened a fourth consecutive session to 95.55 with the dollar bid as well. The plan. Resistance 23,450, then 23,500, then 23,700. Support 23,400, then 23,300, then 23,200. Band 23,147 to 23,650. The straddle implied move to settlement is 260.6 points and the gap alone uses 82 of it, leaving about 180 for the session. That is a bad day to buy premium and a dangerous one to sell it naked. Defined risk only, if anything at all. And remember what a pin is: a settlement mechanic, not a trend. Data from NSE and BSE BhavCopy, 11 September close, with global levels read on the morning of 15 September. Streams first on rupeecase.com . Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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  Episode #123

  S2Ep123 | I Called The Pin And It Landed Inside Three Points. I Also Told You To Buy Volatility And That Leg Lost 349. | Brent Went Vertical To 107.85 | The Nikkei Is Down Three Percent | 11th Sept Friday

  Sep 10, 20269 minS2

  I called the pin yesterday and it landed inside three points. I also told you to buy volatility, and that leg lost 349 points. And this morning Brent is 107.85 and the Nikkei is down three percent. THE RECEIPT, BOTH HALVES. I said we would open below 75,000, that it was max pain and the strike traders would try to reclaim, and that the magnet should hold it. We opened 74,742.54, the high was 74,910.96 so it came 89 points short and never reclaimed it, and it settled 74,902.59 while the final max pain on the settlement file was 74,900. Two point five nine points, the closest pin this show has put on record. Now the half that lost: the 74,800 straddle cost 452.35 the night before, the day's range was 312 points, and at settlement it was worth 102.59. A long straddle held to the close lost 349.76. Being right about where it settles and wrong about how far it travels is one call, not two, and you get both halves. Trading light is the only reason it did not hurt more. THE INDEX ROSE AND TWO IN THREE STOCKS FELL. The Nifty closed 23,477.80, up 46 points, but the cash market was 934 up against 1,667 down, the same advance decline ratio as the day before when the index fell. A narrow bounce on unchanged breadth, not a recovery. And every sector that worked on Wednesday failed on Thursday: banks led, IT stopped falling after exactly one day, while Adani Ports gave back to minus 0.39 from plus 3.80. Nothing led two days running. 23,400 IS THE MAP. The both sides strike has walked 23,700, then 23,500, then 23,400 in three sessions, and the biggest call add of 38.76 lakh and the second biggest put add both landed there, 78 points below spot. Meanwhile 23,500 broke its symmetry: calls added 36.41 lakh while puts were taken off 18.01 lakh, so the put writers walked away and the call writers piled in. That turns a magnet into a ceiling. Max pain came down to 23,500, only 22 points above spot, which is what the Sensex magnet did in the two days before it pinned. One oddity: the biggest put add on the whole board was 34.28 lakh at 22,500, 977 points below spot. That is not a level, that is a tail hedge bought on a green day. OIL WENT VERTICAL. Brent settled 107.63 from 101.21, up 6.42 dollars and 6.3 percent in one session, and it is 107.85 this morning after opening at 109.05. WTI crossed 100 too. Three mornings ago it was 66 cents from 100 and named the risk that outranked everything. And Asia is in a rout: Nikkei down 3.06 percent, KOSPI 2.54, Taiwan 1.73, Shanghai 1.48, against a GIFT Nifty down only 0.49. Either we catch down or the domestic bid is real. The American ten year is 4.97, three basis points from 5 percent, and India has finally started to move with it. Gold fell to 4,326 and was downgraded back to bearish, which says this is a rates and supply trade rather than a fear trade. THE PLAN. GIFT at 23,346 puts the open at 23,290 to 23,340, a gap down of 140 to 190 points that starts us below both the band low and the 23,400 strike for the first time in this sequence. Reclaim 23,400 and 23,500 comes back into play. Fail it and 23,200 is next. Resistance 23,400, then 23,500, then 23,600. Support 23,364, then 23,200, then 23,000. Band 23,364 to 23,592. Three sessions to expiry, volatility has given back its spike to 11.72 and the 23,400 straddle is only 210, so this is a bad setup for selling premium and a thin one for buying it. Defined risk only if anything at all. Prior episode graded 4.5 on 5. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com .

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  Episode #122

  S2Ep122 | Three Indices Closed At The Exact Low, And Brent Crossed 100 And Held It All Night | There Is No Green In Asia This Morning | Both Sides Just Piled Onto 23,500 | 10th Sept Thursday

  Sep 9, 20269 minS2

  Three indices closed yesterday at the exact low of the day. Not near the low. On it. Brent crossed 100 and then held above it all night. And this morning there is no green anywhere in Asia. THE CLOSE. The Nifty settled 23,431.50, down 203.60, and the low of the day was 23,431.50, the same number. The Sensex and the BANKEX did the same. There was no bounce into the close and nobody stepped in at the end. India VIX rose about six and a half percent to just under 12, the first real bid for volatility in this entire run. 23,500 IS THE MAP. The biggest call add on the entire 15 September board was 72.19 lakh at 23,500, and the biggest put add was 34.82 lakh at the same strike. Both sides landed on one price again, and this time it sits 68 points above us rather than below. Under it a magnet, and a trigger once taken and held. Put call ratio 0.591, max pain 23,600, band 23,310 to 23,550, so max pain sits above the top of the band and the board wants a level today's own volatility does not reach. THE SENSEX EXPIRES TODAY with max pain 75,000, 236 points above spot, against 75,900 on Tuesday's file. The market fell 813 points and the magnet fell 900. That is the opposite of the Nifty expiry, where the magnet sat still and the market walked away from it. A magnet that follows the market is being repriced, not defended. POSITIONING. The foreign index futures short went to 2,76,250, another run high, and has never once turned in this run. But one book changed sides: professional desks went from net short 44,990 index calls to net long 14,552, so they stopped selling upside and started buying it on the day the index closed on its low. Retail sold 88,058 more naked puts, to 8,31,678 short. OIL, AND IT HELD. Brent settled 101.21 and is 101.12 this morning, after an overnight range of 100.94 to 101.90. The entire range sat above 100, so this is a hold rather than a spike. Yesterday morning it was 66 cents away and named as the risk that outranked everything else; it took one day. The rupee weakened again to 95.11, against the pound, the euro, the yen and the yuan, on a day the dollar index did nothing, for a second session running. THE BOND SELLOFF WENT GLOBAL. Europe closed down hard, the CAC minus 1.98 and the DAX minus 1.69, while German yields rose 2.85 percent and French 2.47. This morning Japan is up 1.68, and Korea, Brazil, Canada, Australia and America all rose too. Yesterday this was a European story; today it is a global one, and India is the only major that has not moved. And there is no green in Asia at all: Hang Seng minus 1.52, KOSPI minus 1.03, Taiwan minus 0.93, Nikkei minus 0.88, when last night the KOSPI was up 1.38. THE PLAN. GIFT Nifty is 23,496, up 5.50, which puts the open at 23,420 to 23,460, so we start flat and roughly on yesterday's low. Asia is red, Europe closed down two percent, yields are rising almost everywhere, and we are flat. That combination is the market refusing to follow, and it only stays true until the first hour says otherwise. Resistance 23,500, then 23,600, then 23,700. Support 23,400, then 23,300, then 23,000 a long way back. Band 23,310 to 23,550. No new structure unless the market comes to a level, because volatility just turned up off a very low base and that makes selling premium a worse trade today than it was yesterday. Prior episode graded 4 on 5. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com . Data sourced from NSE, BSE, SEBI, NSDL and CDSL. Cash and option figures are the 9 September close, global figures the morning of 10 September. New episode every trading day at 8:30 AM IST, streaming first on rupeecase.com . Educational content, not investment advice. SEBI RA application under process.

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  Episode #121

  S2Ep121 | I Got The Direction Wrong And The Fly Lost 73.55, Which Is The Exact Number I Published Before I Entered It | The Wings Saved 33 Points | And My Model Projected The Settlement To Within 2.85 Points | 9th Sept Wed

  Sep 8, 202610 minS2

  I got yesterday's direction wrong. The iron fly lost 73.55 points, which is the exact number I published before I entered it. Those are two different skills, and only one of them is optional. THE RECEIPT. The Nifty settled 23,635.10 against my stated target of 23,900, and with a high of 23,758.95 it was never in play. The 23,700 put I owned settled 74.25 from 25.80, and that is the leg that did the work. A naked 23,900 straddle lost 106.55 over the same settlement, so the wings saved 33 points. Thursday they saved 34.34, Friday they cost 34.10, yesterday 33.00. Three receipts within a point and a half of each other. The level was on record too: I said 23,700 decides it, and below it look for 23,650 and 23,600. It broke early and never came back. Low 23,623.10, settlement 23,635.10, right between the two levels I named. THE INDEX FELL THREE TIMES HARDER THAN THE MARKET UNDER IT. Nifty 50 minus 0.61 percent, but the Nifty 500 only 0.22 and the Next 50 actually up 0.52. India Defence rose 2.50 percent with eighteen of nineteen names higher. ICICI Bank fell 2.00, Axis 1.72, Reliance 1.16, HDFC Bank 1.11. Five large banks and Reliance took the index down and the other 490 stocks did not get the message. THE NEW BOARD. Day one of the 15 September series added 476.19 lakh calls and 299.12 lakh puts, put call ratio 0.649, max pain 23,750. The biggest call add was 40.66 lakh at 23,700 and one of the biggest put adds was 23.84 lakh at the same strike. Both sides piled onto one price on day one, and a level both sides defend is a magnet while you are under it and a trigger the moment you take it. The basis came back to plus 114.50 with futures open interest up 2.73 lakh, so that was fresh buying. The foreign futures short went to 2,61,557, another run high and the one book that has never turned. THE MODEL. My Nifty model projected 23,637.95 against a settlement of 23,635.10, and the Sensex model 75,583.34 against 75,577.58. That is 2.85 points and 5.76 points, both inside six, on expiry day. OIL IS THE STORY THIS MORNING. Brent is 99.34, up 1.45 percent, 66 cents from 100, after 86.44, 95.73, 96.60, 97.32 and 97.09 over twelve sessions. A hundred dollar Brent is a different macro for an oil importer, and it is landing on a rupee that weakened against the pound, the euro, the yen and the yuan on a day the dollar index itself fell. Weak against everything is a domestic signal, not a dollar signal. THE PLAN. GIFT Nifty 23,662.00 puts the open at 23,560 to 23,600, a gap down of 40 to 75 points, which opens us below 23,600. So the first question is whether we reclaim 23,600, and 23,700 becomes the second question rather than the first. Resistance 23,700, then 23,750 and 23,800. Support 23,600, then 23,500. Band 23,520 to 23,750. The weekly board points to 23,750, the monthly to 24,200 and the foreign futures short points lower, and the one that has been right every day of this run is the short. No structure today unless the market comes to a level. After a settlement that cost the maximum, the right size is smaller, not bigger. Prior episode graded 3 on 5. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com . Data sourced from NSE, BSE, SEBI, NSDL and CDSL. Cash and option figures are the 8 September close, global figures the morning of 9 September. New episode every trading day at 8:30 AM IST, streaming first on rupeecase.com . Educational content, not investment advice. SEBI RA application under process.

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  Episode #120

  S2Ep120 | Friday's Board Was Built For A Rally And It Took One Session To Take The Whole Thing Apart | 659 Lakh Calls Written, 189 Lakh Puts Covered | I Am Still Buying The Dip Into 23,600 With An Expiry Target Of 23,900 | 8th Sept Tuesday

  Sep 7, 202611 minS2

  Friday's option board was built for a rally: calls bought back, puts written, volatility crushed. It took the market one session to take the whole thing apart. Yesterday 659.17 lakh calls were written and 189.23 lakh puts were bought back, and the put call ratio fell from 0.844 to 0.556. THE RECEIPT. On record yesterday: the question was not whether we take 24,000, it was whether we reclaim 23,900, and if we failed there the people who wrote puts at that strike on Friday were the ones in trouble. The high was 23,890, ten points short. The 23,900 put went from 59.85 to 128.80, more than doubling, and 75.84 lakh of open interest came off as the writers bought themselves out. THE TAPE. Nifty 23,779.15, down half a percent. It opened 23,883.15, made its high in the first few minutes and fell all day to 23,737.90. Thirteen up and thirty seven down inside the index, 1,096 against 1,760 on the full market. The Sensex fell the same half percent and its low was not its close, ending a four session streak. WHERE THE MONEY WENT. Nifty IT fell 2.28 percent and it was not one name: Infosys minus 3.76 on 839 crore, LTTS minus 2.26, Mphasis minus 2.18, Tech Mahindra minus 2.06, with Coforge, Persistent, Oracle Financial, TCS and HCL Tech all following. Ten of ten. Against that, thirty five pharmaceutical names finished up more than 2 percent, the most of any industry, led by Anuh Pharma at plus 12.21 and Hikal at plus 9.54. The money did not leave, it walked from IT into pharma in one session. THE BOARD. 23,800 took 151.18 lakh calls in a single session, 23,900 took 119.70 and 23,850 took 107.23, so they sold calls at every strike from 23,750 up to 24,000. On the put side 23,900 lost 75.84 lakh, 23,950 lost 40.91 and 24,000 lost 26.49, buying back every put written on Friday. Max pain is 23,800, only 21 points above the close. Implied volatility 11.60 percent and one standard deviation 144 points. And the September basis collapsed to 88.55 from 150.40, a 62 point give-back, while futures open interest rose 7.02 lakh, so that was fresh selling at a lower premium rather than unwinding. The cash never validated that premium and the futures came to the cash. WHAT SHOULD WORRY YOU. The retail naked put book went to 8,89,308 from 7,16,258, so 1,73,050 more puts sold in one session, into a falling market, on the eve of expiry, and that is a new high for the run. Friday's reduction lasted exactly one day. The foreign index futures short went to 2,50,093, another run high, in a book that has risen every session and never once turned. OVERNIGHT. The Dow future is down 0.63 percent and kept falling overnight. Asia has cooled: the KOSPI is still up 1.75 percent but the Nikkei is back to plus 0.23 from plus 2.08, so the north Asia surge we were not part of has burned itself out in one session. Oil paused at 97.00. And the yen is up another 1.98 percent at 153.16, the biggest currency move of this run. THE STRUCTURE. An iron fly, body 23,900, wings 23,700 and 24,100. Credit 126.45, maximum loss 73.55, risk to reward 1 to 1.72, breakevens 23,773.55 and 24,026.45. Spot is already inside that payoff zone, maximum profit sits at exactly 23,900, and the whole target zone is in profit. It gets better if the dip comes. Held into settlement, not scalped. A defined risk fly into the close is fine; a naked short option is not. Prior episode graded 4 on 5. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com . Data sourced from NSE, BSE, SEBI, NSDL and CDSL. Option and cash figures are the 7 September close, global figures 8 September morning. New episode every trading day at 8:30 AM IST. The Tanmay Edge streams first on rupeecase.com . Educational content, not investment advice. SEBI RA application under process.

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