
The Rent Report
014 - Tariffs, Population Revisions, and the Rental Market in Canada
Read the articles discussed in this episode: Tariffs and Canada's rental market: https://rentals.ca/blog/tariffs-trade-uncertainty-and-canadas-rental-market StatCan's population revisions and the rental market: https://rentals.ca/blog/revised-population-data-shows-supply-is-doing-more-to-lower-rents-than-previously-believed On this Data Dive episode of The Rent Report, presented by Rentals.ca and Urbanation, we're joined by David Aizikov, Product Manager for Data Services, and Giacomo Ladas, Associate Director of Communications for Rentals.ca, to break down two September articles: one on how tariffs are affecting Canada's rental market, and one on Statistics Canada's upward revision to its population estimates. We start with tariffs: why the impact on rents has been small so far, how rising construction costs work their way through the development pipeline over several years, and why tariff-exposed markets like Oshawa and Windsor are moving so differently. We also look at how a building's construction type shapes its exposure, comparing high-rise towers in Toronto and Vancouver with timber-frame construction in Alberta and Quebec, and how economic uncertainty is delaying household formation even in markets with little direct exposure. From there, we turn to StatCan's revision, which turned three quarters of reported population decline into continued, slower growth. We explain how a backlog of post-graduation work permit applications caused the undercount, and what the revision means for the story behind falling rents. The panel discusses vacancy chains, the "continuum of housing," the federal target for non-permanent residents, and repositioning, the practice of renovating older buildings and moving them upmarket. The episode closes with a look at the risk of another supply gap around 2030, when today's delayed housing starts would have been completed, followed by each panellist naming the one policy lever they would pull to keep housing projects viable. The Rent Report is a podcast from Urbanation, in collaboration with Rentals.ca, breaking down the data shaping Canada's rental and real estate markets. Chapters 0:00 Cold Open 0:54 Intro 1:22 What the Media Is Asking About Tariffs 2:36 Construction Costs and the Development Pipeline 4:46 Tariff-Exposed Markets: Oshawa vs. Windsor 6:28 Steel, Timber and Uncertainty 7:24 Mass Timber and Building Beyond the Core 9:19 Delayed Decisions and an Older Renter Base 10:33 Why Housing Policy Needs to Look Further Ahead 12:02 You Don't Have to Lose Your Job to Change Your Plans 13:34 StatCan's Population Revision 17:41 Supply Becomes the Main Story 19:33 How StatCan Missed the Work Permit Surge 21:49 Vacancy Chains and the Continuum of Housing 26:02 The Non-Permanent Resident Target 28:23 What Is Repositioning? 32:03 A Supply Gap Around 2030? 36:28 One Policy Lever to Keep Projects Viable 40:59 Jeb!'s Pick: Zoning Reform 43:24 Outro

