The PredictIt Podcast

Two weeks ago Abdul El-Sayed was trading at 93 cents to win Michigan's Democratic Senate primary. He's now at 63. Jacob and Garth break down what changed: McMorrow's exit turned it into a clean head-to-head, a fresh...

The Senate map just got scrambled in a single week. Graham Platner's Maine campaign implodes after a sexual assault allegation, and nearly every Democrat who backed him is now calling for him to step aside before the...

It's a full Senate polling roundup — every race that matters, poll by poll, checked against where PredictIt traders actually have the money. Texas is a dead heat: Paxton and Talarico tied 47-47 in the NYT/Siena poll...

Mamdani went 3-for-3 last night — sweeping all three New York City congressional primaries and ousting two incumbents, including Hakeem Jeffries-backed Adriano Espaillat in NY-13. Brad Lander flattened Dan Goldman in...

For the first time since Venezuela, Republicans have real momentum — and it came from three places at once: an Iran deal signed in Geneva, gas prices falling week over week, and UFC 250 entering through the Oval Office...

Graham Platner won the Maine Democratic primary last night with 77% of the vote — Is the Market Overreacting to the Platner Scandal? We broke down the thesis weeks ago: scandals with diminishing returns, outsider energy...

An astrologer's archetypal forecast for 2026... without making a single prediction. Dr. Laurence Hillman returns for Part 2 with his most provocative takes: AI acceleration, alien disclosure, the Leo-Aquarius tension...

Can astrology predict political outcomes — or is it something else entirely? Dr. Laurence Hillman, one of the world's leading archetypal astrologers, argues it's neither prediction nor superstition. It's pattern...

We called Kevin Warsh at 54 votes. It came in 54-45 — the closest Fed chair confirmation in modern history. The contract was trading at 3¢ the day before. If you're not listening, you're leaving money on the table. In...

The Virginia Supreme Court just struck down the voter-approved redistricting referendum in a 4-3 ruling — blocking a map that would have flipped four House seats. Democrats have fallen from 85¢ to 70¢ to take the House...

The Supreme Court's Callais decision just reshaped the path to a 2026 House majority. Democrats fell from 87¢ to 79¢ on PredictIt — but the underlying fundamentals (Trump approval, generic ballot, cost-of-living...

PredictIt's $3,500 individual position cap is its single biggest differentiator and the recent Polymarket insider trading charge, bouts of political violence, and questions over what place prediction markets place in...

Virginia's April 21 redistricting referendum could flip up to 4 House seats and reshape the 2026 midterms. We break down where PredictIthave it priced and whether the data should scare traders holding Yes at 85 cents...

Jacob and Garth cover the potential expulsion of Tony Gonzalez and Eric Swalwell, the California governor's race. We also delve into the Maine Senate race and the potential impact of a major hurricane on the election. *...

Chad Peace of the Independent Voter Project joins Jacob to break down why 45% of registered voters are independent — and why both parties are structurally built to ignore them. They dig into California's nonpartisan...