Episode #17
017 - When Will Mortgage Rates Go Down? What the Fed Actually Controls
When will mortgage rates go down? It's the question every real estate agent hears, and it's usually the wrong question. In this episode I break down what the Fed actually controls, what really moves mortgage rates (inflation, economic growth, government debt, and confidence), and what happened at the end of 2024 when the Fed cut three times and mortgage rates went UP half a percent. We also get into the two people reshaping this market right now: new Fed chairman Kevin Warsh, who wants markets to stop hanging on the Fed's every word, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, whose bond buyback program touches the longer-term rates your mortgage actually keys off. Plus the $40 bond example that makes yields and prices finally click, told through a real estate analogy you already know. By the end you'll be able to answer "should we wait for the Fed?" like a trusted advisor instead of guessing. **Chapters** 0:00 The steering wheel: who really turns interest rates 1:28 The question every client asks (and what they really mean) 2:08 Misconception #1: the Fed does not set mortgage rates 3:32 Late 2024: three Fed cuts, and rates went up 4:49 What actually moves mortgage rates: the four forces 6:21 Government debt and Treasury supply and demand 7:41 Kevin Warsh's Fed: let markets do the work 9:29 Enter Scott Bessent and the Treasury 10:15 Bond prices vs. yields: the $40 bond example 12:11 Treasury buybacks: a seller buying back their own listings 13:05 Where the line gets drawn (and why agents should care) 14:26 Wrap-up: talk to your clients with confidence **Connect with Scott** Instagram: http://instagram.com/loan.daddy Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ScottNadler.CCM YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheLoanDaddy Questions from the episode: scottnadlerteam@ccm.com DISCLAIMER: This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult a licensed professional before making any related decisions.
