The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

The Julia La Roche Show is a business podcast hosted by Unknown Host, with 0 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80.

Unknown Host hosts The Julia La Roche Show, a business show with 0 episodes published.

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  Episode #416

  #416 Chris Whalen: Cheap Credit Is Over, K-Shaped Economy Becoming an L, Long Energy & Short Financials

  Oct 3, 202634 min

  The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a weak jobs report, with just 29,000 jobs added against expectations of 90,000, and long-term yields still elevated. Chris argues that rising bond yields reflect real inflation running in the mid-to-high single digits, well above the official numbers, and that the era of Fed-suppressed rates that began in 2008 is over. He expects the Fed to hold in October and possibly hike in November, and makes the case that Powell gave Trump nearly everything he wanted while incoming Chair Warsh is a hawk. Chris explains why $8–9 diesel and high replacement costs mean building more homes won't fix affordability, and why consumer credit stress is spreading upward. In his words, the K-shaped economy is "fast becoming an L." He reveals he's now short a couple of bank names, has rotated heavily into energy, and sees "long energy, short financials" as the trade for the next year or two. He also previews a tough midterm for Republicans, answers a viewer question on raising taxes, and discusses Judy Shelton's move to Treasury and his critique of the FASB's mortgage servicing rights proposal. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 0:00 – Welcome to The Wrap 0:18 – Jobs report misses badly, but yields stay high 1:28 – Is real inflation higher than the official stats? 2:51 – October FOMC: hike, hold, or wait for November? 4:20 – Powell gave Trump everything he wanted 6:24 – The easy environment is over: diesel and demand destruction 7:36 – Why building more homes won't fix affordability 9:28 – 7%+ mortgage rates and pain in the mortgage industry 10:40 – Portfolio rebalancing: selling financials, buying energy 11:43 – Cracks in consumer credit 13:01 – Restaurant and grocery margins (and the Publix real estate play) 14:45 – The K-shaped economy is becoming an L 17:11 – Why Chris is bearish on banks and shorting a few 18:34 – Is a recession ahead? 18:56 – Midterms, affordability, and Trump's lame-duck period 21:29 – Will Warsh give Trump what he wants? 23:36 – Viewer Q: Why not raise taxes to cut the deficit? 25:36 – Judy Shelton joins Treasury, and gold as money 27:01 – Chris critiques the FASB mortgage servicing rights proposal 29:08 – What Chris is watching: credit markets and Q3 earnings 31:18 – Why this year will be remembered as extraordinary 31:58 – Wrap-up

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  Episode #415

  #415 Dr. Mark Thornton: The Bond Market Is Flashing a Warning Nobody in Washington Wants to Fix

  Oct 1, 202654 min

  Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute, joins Julia to explain why the bond market is the pivotal story right now. The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are back above 5%, the national debt is over $40 trillion, and deficits are running at about $2 trillion a year. Thornton argues that this is wartime-level borrowing during supposedly good times. It crowds out private investment, weighs on wages, and widens the K-shaped divide between asset owners and everyone else. He explains why he thinks the Fed's recent hike won't be its last. In his view, Chairman Warsh and Secretary Bessent are managing the problem rather than solving it, and a market break or crisis could give the Fed cover to restart money printing. He describes the US as merging onto the "highway to hyperinflation," draws on historical cases from Revolutionary France to Weimar Germany, and closes with why he expects hard assets and commodities to outperform financial assets over the next decade. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links X: https://x.com/DrMarkThornton Free Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspx Mises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thornton Timestamps: 0:00 Intro: Why bonds are the big worry 0:43 Big picture: 10- and 30-year yields at 25-year highs 4:24 Are we in a new higher-rate regime? 11:48 Wartime deficits in "good times" 18:21 Who wins and who loses from easy money 20:25 Young people, housing, and the K-shaped economy 24:02 Food, energy, and the Persian Gulf conflict 28:10 Are we on the on-ramp to hyperinflation? 34:03 Fed rate hikes: more coming, and what's next 39:27 No consequences: the "magic checkbook" 47:28 How to protect yourself: hard assets 51:28 Where to find Dr. Thornton's work

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  Episode #445

  #414 Andy Constan: Markets Vulnerable to Disappointment, Cautious on Equities, and the 60/40 Strikes Back

  Sep 29, 202657 min

  Andy Constan, founder and CIO of Damped Spring and a veteran of Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show. He lays out his four-pillar macro framework and explains why he's turning cautious on equities despite a strong U.S. economy. His "pie theory" argues that the earnings AI companies are promising add up to more than the GDP available to deliver them. His "hamburger theory" warns that the massive borrowing needed to fund AI capex could stall if capital markets take a breather. With rates spiking for the seventh time since COVID, Constan doubts policymakers will engineer another V-top. He is currently short equities and max long long-term bonds, arguing that the much-maligned 60/40 portfolio is finally worth owning again. He also gives his early read on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, explains what it would really take to kill inflation, and argues that this cycle has no clean historical analog because it's fueled by public-sector rather than private-sector debt. He closes with the story of analyzing every trade from the 1987 crash on the Brady Commission at age 23, and his core advice: own a well-constructed portfolio at your risk target and hold it for life. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Website: https://dampedspring.com/ X: https://x.com/dampedspring Substack: https://substack.com/@dampedspring Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome Andy Constan 00:50 The four-pillar macro framework: growth, inflation, risk premium, positioning 02:42 Where we are: a strong economy and 66 months of above-target inflation 05:20 AI and the "pie theory": why there isn't enough GDP for the earnings expectations 12:22 The "hamburger theory": who pays for the AI capex boom 13:50 The seventh rate spike: will it V-top again? 17:43 Why he's getting cautious on stocks 18:13 How most people should invest: risk targets and always owning beta 21:43 Seeking alpha and his current positioning: short equities, max long bonds 24:21 "The 60/40 Strikes Back": why bonds make sense again 29:30 Bonds finally get the growth memo 31:58 Vulnerable to disappointment, not recession 32:52 His read on Kevin Warsh at the Fed 36:59 What it would actually take to kill inflation 38:45 Why the administration isn't fighting inflation 41:37 What's mispriced right now 43:35 Historical analogs: 0DTE options, portfolio insurance, and a public-debt-driven cycle 48:09 Serving on the Brady Commission after the 1987 crash at age 23 53:02 Parting thoughts and where to find Andy The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

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  Episode #413

  #413 Chris Whalen: Bonds, Gold, Energy, & the Coming Food Shock

  Sep 26, 202632 min

  Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche to break down a turbulent week in markets, as the 30-year Treasury hits its highest yield since 2004 and the 10-year breaks 5%. Chris argues that long rates have structurally reset, driven by Washington's credibility problem and the deficit rather than by the Fed, and he says 7%+ mortgage rates are the new normal as the housing industry heads into consolidation. He makes the case that the world is moving back toward a pre-WWI-style system with gold at its foundation, and explains why he's still long gold and silver despite short-term swings. Drawing on his conversation with John Dizard, Chris explains how damaged Persian Gulf refining capacity is squeezing diesel and sulfur supplies, sending fertilizer prices up eightfold and setting up a food price shock next year. He warns that double-digit inflation is already "baked into the cake," and predicts demand destruction could force the Fed to cut rates by 2027. In viewer questions, Chris covers trimming his Annaly position to buy energy stocks, means-testing Social Security, where housing prices are falling, and the risks private credit poses to life insurance and long-term care policies. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 0:00 – Preview 0:28 – Welcome to The Wrap 1:06 – 30-year yield hits 2004 high, 10-year breaks 5% 2:18 – 7%+ mortgage rates: the new normal 3:16 – What higher rates mean for housing and the mortgage industry 4:24 – Fed hike and whether Warsh has lost the long end 5:48 – Inflated and the University Club talk 6:34 – Gold and the return to a pre-WWI monetary system 7:40 – Sponsor: Monetary Metals 8:55 – Why rising yields haven't broken the gold thesis 9:49 – The dollar and a multilateral currency world 11:58 – October hike? The refinery capacity crisis 14:05 – Diesel, sulfur, and the fertilizer shock 15:40 – Double-digit inflation is "baked into the cake" 16:36 – The endgame: Iran and the Strait of Hormuz 18:22 – Demand destruction and why the Fed may cut 21:24 – Viewer Q: Selling Annaly, buying energy 23:36 – Viewer Q: Any shorts? 24:21 – Viewer Q: An oversight board for Congress and means-testing Social Security 27:42 – Why Social Security is invested in Treasuries 29:10 – Viewer Q: Will housing prices fall? 30:23 – Viewer Q: Private credit and long-term care policies 31:25 – Wrap-up

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  Episode #412

  #412 Michael Pento: 2027 Will Be a Very Difficult Year – Here's Why

  Sep 24, 202650 min

  Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche Show to warn that the U.S. faces what he calls a "triumvirate of bubbles" in equities, real estate, and credit, all inflated at once for the first time in history. He argues that years of persistent inflation, soaring national debt, foreign creditors stepping back from Treasuries, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade are pushing bond yields higher, and that rising rates will ultimately burst all three bubbles. For the first time since 2021, Pento gives a timeline: he expects 2027 to be a very difficult year as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh hikes rates and slows balance sheet growth, putting it in direct conflict with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to hold down long-term yields. Pento explains why he reluctantly uses the word "depression," why the traditional 60/40 portfolio could fail retirees, and why he believes the Fed will eventually return to money printing, triggering a prolonged era of "hyperstagflation." He also shares how he's positioned today, still net long, with short-term Treasuries, dividend payers, and precious metals, while watching credit markets closely because "the clock is ticking." Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento 0:00 Cold open: "With reluctance, depression" 0:19 Welcome back, Michael Pento 0:59 The macro picture: 5+ years of inflation crushing consumers 4:16 Insolvency, foreign creditors & the yen carry trade unwind 8:15 Sponsor: Monetary Metals 10:06 The "triumvirate of bubbles": stocks, real estate & credit 14:40 Not a perma-bear: 35 years in the business 15:18 Pento's first timeline since 2021: why 2027 20:08 The forgotten middle class & why the pain is necessary 21:39 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals 23:12 Warsh vs. Bessent: are the Fed and Treasury at odds? 24:43 Who wins? "The free market always wins" 25:43 Why he's calling it a depression, not a recession 28:26 Retirees beware: the danger of the 60/40 portfolio 33:02 Where to hide in "hyperstagflation" 34:48 How Pento is positioned right now (still net long) 39:19 Is there hope on the other side? 42:32 The biggest risk nobody's watching: long-term rates 43:33 Record debt, private credit & "this is not normal" 46:28 How to follow Michael Pento

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