
The Daily Digits
14bp: the speech moved rates, not the jobs revision
<p>Two things hit the tape at the same minute on Friday morning, and the market is crediting the wrong one.</p><p>5:12 on the numbers behind it. The Daily Digits makes five or six falsifiable market calls every morning, each with a base rate, a horizon and a line that would kill it. We publish the misses too.</p><p>In this episode</p><p>- Warsh added 14bp to the 2-year, and the payroll benchmark did nothing. Neutral on the front end, and that is a result rather than a shrug. Conditioning on a move this size gives 216...



