
Episode #45
Episode 45 | Global AgriTrends Market Update September 2026, with Simon Quilty
Episode Summary: In this episode of The Angus Table, Scott Wright sits down with Global AgriTrend’s Simon Quilty for a September market update dissecting cattle cycles, global demand dynamics, and price forecasts. Simon argues Australia has experienced two years of genuine liquidation despite claims herd sizes remain large, with supply tightening sharply over recent weeks signalling rebuild imminent. Scott and Simon discuss the weather forecasting divergence between the Bureau of Meteorology calling dry versus Art Douglas calling wet patterns, how consumer cost-of-living pressures are driving pricing despite strong export demand, and what this means for beef producers. Simon gives his analysis of the US market, including the protein obsession and rise of GLP-1 drugs, and the impact of the US herd being at a 74-year low. He explains early rebuild signs such as vealer prices moving early, heifers gaining premium over cows, and the fall in weekly yardings. Angus prevalence throughout the decimation explains the breed's critical role in the rebuild ahead: the breed faces greatest decimation and therefore greatest rebuild opportunity going forward. Simon shares his pricing forecasts for two exceptional years ahead driven by tight global supply, saying the market-access headwinds are navigable given the structural beef shortage globally. So pull up a chair at the Angus Table for this conversation about reading rebuild cycles, global market drivers, and supply-led price forecasts. Key topics covered: Simon's assessment that two years of genuine liquidation point to imminent rebuild, contradicting some industry forecasts of herd stability. The weather forecasting divergence between Bureau of Meteorology calling dry versus Art Douglas calling wet patterns The domestic protein shift underway in Australia: chicken now dominates at 54% market share while beef has fallen to 19.2% Why consumer cost-of-living pressures are driving pricing despite strong export demand: premium cuts pulled back domestically due to China and Korea safeguards; consumer pushback on high prices forcing "dumbing down" to affordable cuts. How the US protein obsession and rise of GLP-1 drugs is driving structural demand for protein, including beef The impact of the US herd being at 74-year low (86.2 million) in sixth year of decline, and carcass weights up 30% since 1990s: fed prices firm despite dips Why bred heifers at $6,400 USD remain insufficient to convince retention given land-use pressures and trader preferences limiting supply response. How farmer behaviour patterns—40% core breeders, 40% traders, 20% swing operators—explain slow rebuilding, with NSW as the key state for rebuild timing. The weekly yardings falling off a cliff as a classic rebuild indicator, with Victoria and Queensland showing decimation patterns consistent with the 2014-17 rebuild cycle. What vealer prices moving early and heifers gaining premium over cows tells Simon about the cycle turning point How the decline in mutton kills predicts imminent female cattle kill decline through a six-month lag, signalling the rebuild shift now underway. Why Angus dominance (73% of females Angus, 77% Angus-influenced in southern states) means the breed faces greatest decimation and greatest rebuild opportunity. Simon's price forecasts: yardings down 14% this year and 24% next year; kill volumes to 8.8M this year and 7.2M next year; feeder steers to $7.20-$7.50 July-September 2027 with Angus females having greatest first-half upside. Two exceptional years ahead driven by tight global supply; market-access headwinds navigable given structural beef shortage. Contact details: Connect with Simon via the Global AgriTrends website https://agritrends.com/ This podcast is proudly brought to you by Angus Australia https://www.angusaustralia.com.au/ +Follow Angus Australia on + Facebook + Instagram + X + LinkedIn + +Follow Angus Youth Australia on + Facebook + Instagram + X + CREDITS: Host: Scott Wright, CEO. Get in touch via email ceo@angusaustralia.com.au Producer: Mel Strasburg mel.strasburg@angusaustralia.com.au Audio editing and post-production: Ellen Ronalds Keene at https://perkdigital.com.au

