Tepp Talks: A podcast with David Tepp
Tepp Wealth Management 3rd Quarter 2026 Outlook
The end of the Iran conflict was, in many ways, anti-climactic: a memorandum of understanding, a partially reopened shipping lane, and a great deal of squinting at tanker-tracking data. Our second-quarter outlook was written with oil tankers idling outside the Strait of Hormuz and markets pricing catastrophe. Three months later, the United States and Iran have signed a 14-point framework, the Strait is haltingly reopening and oil prices have collapsed. We said the Strait would be substantially open by late May; the ceasefire came in April and the framework in June. We said the technology selloff was a valuation problem, not an earnings problem, and an attractive entry point; as of this writing, semiconductor stocks have since risen roughly 80% this year, which is the market’s way of agreeing with unnerving enthusiasm. And we warned of an inflationary impulse which has already occurred. For the 3rdQ, our advice is simple: take profits where success created concentration and diversify holdings for greater protection against market risk. SOURCES Absolute Strategy Research, “Return to risk-on,” Asset Allocation Quarterly, Zahra Ward-Murphy & ASR Research Team, June 17, 2026 Absolute Strategy Research, “Resilient Economy Drives Sector Shift,” Nick Nelson, June 25, 2026 Absolute Strategy Research, “Stick with Japan, Asia ex-Japan & US,” Nick Nelson, July 2, 2026 Alpine Macro, “Further And Longer,” Global Strategy, Chen Zhao, June 22, 2026 Alpine Macro, “The Aftermath Playbook,” Global Asset Allocation, Bassam Nawfal, June 16, 2026 Alpine Macro, “WACC Attack,” Equity Strategy Monthly, Nick Giorgi, July 1, 2026 BCA Research, “Monthly TAA: Monetization — The Next Frontier Of The AI Bull Market,” Juan Correa et al., June 1, 2026 BCA Research, “Geopolitical Outlook For Q3, 2026,” Matt Gertken et al., June 29, 2026 BCA Research, “Is The US Labor Market Tightening Or Easing?” US Bond Strategy, Ryan Swift, July 3, 2026 Center for Strategic and International Studies, “Why Russia Is Changing Its Nuclear Doctrine Now,” Heather Williams, September 27, 2024 Oxford Economics, “Good news is bad news for the Fed,” Country Economic Forecast US, Michael Pearce, June 10, 2026 Oxford Economics, “Job market losing its sheen adds to the case for an extended Fed pause,” Weekly Economic Briefing US, Bernard Yaros, July 2, 2026
