Stock Talk

Retirement Focused Investment Stock Talk with Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC® Chief Investment Officer of Oak Harvest Financial Group. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Insurance services are provided through Oak Harvest Insurance Services, LLC, a licensed insurance agency.

Stock Talk is a business podcast hosted by Unknown Host, with 100 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80. PitchCentric scores this show on Booking Probability, Listen Score, and live audience signals refreshed every 24 hours.

Unknown Host hosts Stock Talk, a business show with 100 episodes published.

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  Episode #363

  Dot-Com vs. AI Stock Cycles: “The Optimist” Stock Talk Update September 11, 2026

  Sep 14, 202617 min

  The AI boom keeps getting compared to the dot-com bubble. But what if the comparison is right—and the timing is wrong? A Bespoke Investment Group chart compares the Nasdaq after the launch of Netscape in 1994 with the Nasdaq after the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. At a comparable point in the two cycles, today lines up closer to September 1998 than the March 2000 dot-com peak. That doesn’t mean history will repeat. Historical comparisons aren’t forecasts. But it raises an important question: What evidence would tell us this AI cycle is nearing the end—and what evidence would suggest it may still be developing? In this episode of Stock Talk, we examine four major pieces of the argument: The historical Netscape-versus-ChatGPT market comparison, the spread of AI adoption and productivity, corporate earnings momentum, and today’s valuation and interest-rate risks. We also look at the massive increase in data-center construction, the difference between FOMO and what Ed Yardeni calls “Fabulous Earnings Momentum,” and evidence that market leadership has broadened beyond the Magnificent Seven. The goal isn’t to predict where stocks go next. It’s to ask a better question about where we may be in this technology and market cycle—and what evidence investors should watch from here. If you enjoy market analysis that looks at both the opportunity and the risk, subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications for future episodes of Stock Talk. If you’re approaching retirement and want to understand how markets, income needs, taxes, Social Security, withdrawal decisions, and risk fit into your personal retirement strategy, contact Oak Harvest Financial Group to start a conversation about your retirement plan. Important Disclosure: This content is for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or pursue any investment strategy. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Historical performance and historical comparisons do not guarantee or predict future results. Estimates and market data discussed in this video may change. YouTube Chapters These timestamps follow the actual uploaded cut. 00:00 AI vs. the Dot-Com Bubble 00:18 What If We’re Comparing It to the Wrong Year? 01:03 Four Tests for the AI Boom 01:33 The Netscape vs. ChatGPT Nasdaq Chart 02:45 Why the September 1998 Comparison Matters 03:07 Subscribe to Stock Talk 03:17 What Happened After 1998? 04:05 AI’s Real Economic Test: Productivity 04:52 AI Adoption Is Surging 05:47 The Data-Center Construction Boom 07:25 FOMO vs. Fabulous Earnings Momentum 08:07 What Earnings Are Telling Us 09:25 The Biggest Problem: Valuation 09:51 Stocks vs. 10-Year Treasury Yields 11:03 Is the Rally Broader Than AI? 11:47 The “Impressive 493” vs. Magnificent Seven 12:30 So Is This Another Dot-Com Bubble? 13:10 The Four Tests That Matter From Here 14:00 The Real Lesson From 1998 vs. 2000 14:36 The One Question Investors Should Ask 15:03 What This Means for Your Retirement

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  Episode #362

  Dotcom Bubble vs. AI Investment: Could the Federal Reserve “Family Fight” End Today’s Enthusiasm?

  Sep 4, 202616 min

  What if artificial intelligence changes the world—but some of today’s leading AI stocks still turn out to be the wrong investments at the wrong prices? In this episode of Stock Talk, Chris Perras looks back at the Dotcom era to explore an important distinction for investors: a technology can transform the economy without every stock connected to that technology delivering great investment returns. The Internet didn’t fail after the Dotcom crash. It went on to reshape commerce, communication, advertising and entertainment. But many technology investors still suffered enormous losses as valuations changed, interest rates rose and market leadership shifted. Could something similar happen during the AI boom? Rather than trying to predict an AI crash, Chris focuses on three signals that may help investors recognize whether market leadership is beginning to change: • STOCKS — Is technology continuing to dominate, or is leadership spreading into financials, industrials, energy, materials and international markets? • INTEREST RATES — What are the Federal Reserve, the 2-Year Treasury and the 10-Year Treasury telling us about the cost of money? • THE U.S. DOLLAR — Is the dollar strengthening and tightening global financial conditions, or weakening as commodities and international markets gain strength? Chris also explores a fascinating possibility: the massive infrastructure required to build artificial intelligence may eventually benefit businesses far outside traditional technology. AI data centers require electricity, copper, steel, cooling systems, transformers, natural gas, nuclear power, grid equipment and other physical infrastructure. Could the AI boom itself help create the next generation of market leaders? History doesn’t tell us exactly what happens next. But it can help investors recognize the conditions that have accompanied major changes in market leadership before. The important question may not be whether AI succeeds. It may be whether today’s investors are paying the right price for that future. If changing interest rates, inflation, market leadership or a different investment cycle has you wondering how your retirement plan could be affected, contact Oak Harvest Financial Group to schedule a conversation about your financial plan. Subscribe to Stock Talk for more conversations connecting market history with what’s happening in the economy and financial markets today. This material is for general education and information only. It isn’t individualized investment, tax or legal advice. Any mention of stocks, sectors, commodities or asset classes is for discussion only and shouldn’t be seen as a recommendation to buy or sell any investment. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Advisory services are offered through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. SEC registration doesn’t mean the SEC or any other regulator endorses the firm, and it doesn’t mean a certain level of skill or training. #ArtificialIntelligence #StockMarket #Investing #AIStocks #MarketOutlook Chapters: 0:00 AI Can Win While AI Stocks Lose 1:44 Is AI a Bubble—or the Wrong Question? 2:44 What the Dotcom Era Can Teach Us 4:59 Signal #1: Watch Market Leadership 6:30 Could AI Create the Next Hard-Asset Boom? 7:13 Signal #2: Watch Interest Rates 9:09 Signal #3: Watch the U.S. Dollar 10:57 How Similar Is Today to the Dotcom Era? 12:06 The Biggest Lesson From the Dotcom Crash 12:58 Three Signals Investors Should Watch Now

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  Episode #361

  Living in a Material World: After AI (Dot-Com), What Might Be Next? Stock Talk Update August 28, 2026

  Sep 4, 202618 min

  Artificial intelligence may be the biggest technology story in the market — but the next major investment opportunity connected to AI may not be another AI stock. As companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta spend hundreds of billions of dollars building AI infrastructure and data centers, they're also creating enormous demand for something much more physical: electricity, copper, steel, transformers, natural gas, uranium, electrical equipment and the infrastructure needed to connect it all. So what happens if the AI boom eventually creates a materials boom? In this episode of Stock Talk, we look back at what happened after technology stopped dominating the market around the dot-com era and examine whether investors could be seeing the early stages of another major shift in market leadership. After the Nasdaq peaked in 2000, some of the strongest investments of the following years weren't technology companies. Copper, gold, mining companies, materials and commodity-producing countries experienced enormous gains as China's rapid industrialization created a massive new source of global demand. Today's situation is different — but there may be an important similarity. AI data centers require enormous amounts of electricity. That means additional power generation, transmission lines, transformers, copper, steel and other physical infrastructure. According to the International Energy Agency, global data-center electricity consumption was approximately 415 terawatt-hours in 2024 and could reach roughly 945 terawatt-hours by 2030 under its Base Case. In this video, we explore: Why market leadership changed dramatically after the dot-com boom What created the commodity supercycle of the 2000s Why copper prices rose dramatically during that period How AI data centers are changing global electricity demand Why copper, power infrastructure, uranium, natural gas and electrical equipment could become increasingly important Why materials have historically underperformed the broader market for years What the XLB Materials ETF may be telling investors How limited mining investment could affect future commodity supply Why AI could eventually become as much an infrastructure story as a technology story What investors should watch for if market leadership begins to change The important takeaway isn't that technology stocks have to collapse or that commodities are guaranteed to enter another supercycle. It's that market leadership changes. The companies and sectors that dominated one investment cycle don't necessarily dominate the next. And if artificial intelligence continues growing, the next major investment story may not simply be the companies building AI. It may be the companies supplying the materials, electricity and infrastructure required to build the AI economy. If you're approaching retirement or you're already retired and you'd like someone to review your investments, income needs, risk, and how those pieces fit together with your retirement strategy, contact Oak Harvest Financial Group. There’s no obligation. We’ll learn more about your goals, income needs, and concerns and help you understand whether there may be opportunities to improve your retirement plan. https://click2retire.com/lets-connect And if you enjoy videos that make markets, investing, and retirement easier to understand, subscribe to the channel: https://www.youtube.com/@OakHarvestStockTalk?sub_confirmation=1 This content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized investment, tax or financial advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

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  Episode #360

  Earnings Up, Rates Up: Who Wins the Tug-of-War? Stock Talk Update Aug 21, 2026

  Aug 24, 202615 min

  The S&P 500 has climbed sharply since the market lows of April 2025—but something unusual has happened at the same time: interest rates have also moved higher. So why haven't higher rates stopped the stock market? In this episode of Stock Talk, we break down the tug-of-war between corporate earnings and interest rates and explain why earnings growth has been powerful enough, so far, to overcome the pressure of higher Treasury yields. We also look at what could happen next. Using S&P 500 earnings estimates and different P/E assumptions, we'll walk through several illustrative scenarios for 2027—including what could potentially support an S&P 500 around 8,500, what could bring it closer to 7,200, and how a combination of falling earnings estimates and higher interest rates could create a much more difficult 6,500 scenario. In this video you'll learn: ✔ Why stocks and interest rates have both been rising ✔ Why earnings have been such an important driver of the market ✔ How higher Treasury yields can pressure stock valuations ✔ Why the S&P 500 can rise even while its P/E ratio falls ✔ How earnings and P/E multiples work together to determine market valuations ✔ What could support an S&P 500 around 8,500 ✔ What could push valuations toward 7,200 or lower ✔ The two numbers investors should be watching through 2026 and into 2027 The key isn't trying to predict exactly where the market will go. It's understanding what's driving it. If you're approaching retirement or you're already retired and you'd like someone to review your investments, income needs, risk, and how those pieces fit together with your retirement strategy, contact Oak Harvest Financial Group. There’s no obligation. We’ll learn more about your goals, income needs, and concerns and help you understand whether there may be opportunities to improve your retirement plan. https://click2retire.com/lets-connect And if you enjoy videos that make markets, investing, and retirement easier to understand, subscribe to the channel: https://www.youtube.com/@OakHarvestStockTalk?sub_confirmation=1 Sources discussed: FactSet Earnings Insight S&P 500 earnings estimates 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Important Disclosure: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and isn't intended as individualized investment advice. Market scenarios discussed are illustrative and aren't predictions or guarantees of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. 00:00 Something Strange Is Happening in the Stock Market 01:10 Earnings vs. Interest Rates: The Tug-of-War 02:08 Point 1: Earnings Are Winning 03:21 Where Earnings Could Go Next 04:51 Why Hasn't the Market Gone Even Higher? 05:00 Point 2: Interest Rates Are Fighting Back 05:38 How Stocks Can Rise While the P/E Falls 06:24 Why the 10-Year Treasury Matters 07:31 What Happens Next? 08:23 The Bull Case: S&P 500 Around 8,500 09:11 The Higher-Rate Case: Around 7,200 10:12 The Bear Case: Around 6,500 11:07 The Two Numbers Investors Should Watch 12:05 The Number That Explains This Market 13:00 The Biggest Risk to Stocks 13:38 What This Means for Your Retirement

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  Episode #359

  Did Warsh Just “Light this Candle”? Stock Talk Update August 14, 2026

  Aug 14, 202616 min

  Is the AI boom beginning to rhyme with the late 1990s? Strong earnings, record market highs, massive semiconductor investment, and an unusual shift in global currency conditions are creating a market setup investors should be watching closely. In this video, we examine the growing comparison between today’s AI-driven market and the final stages of the dot-com boom. The comparison became even more interesting after the United States and Japan stepped in to support the Japanese yen—an unusual development that raises an important question: could changing global financial conditions provide another source of liquidity at the same time earnings and AI investment remain strong? That doesn’t mean 2026 has to repeat 1999. Today’s largest AI companies are generating substantial revenue, profits, margins, and cash flow. But history shows that strong businesses, strong earnings, improving liquidity, and increasing investor enthusiasm can sometimes combine to produce powerful—and increasingly speculative—late-cycle markets. In this video, we break down: ✔ Why the 1999 dot-com comparison is becoming more interesting ✔ What strong corporate earnings are telling us about the market ✔ Why semiconductor earnings remain critical to the AI investment cycle ✔ How massive AI infrastructure spending could affect future returns ✔ Why the U.S.-Japan yen intervention matters ✔ What happened during the Y2K liquidity window in 1999 ✔ How interest rates and inflation expectations affect stock valuations ✔ Why liquidity could become an important market driver ✔ Four indicators investors should be watching from here ✔ What this environment could mean for retirees and people approaching retirement The goal isn’t to predict exactly what the market will do next. Instead, we believe investors should focus on the forces underneath the market: earnings, interest rates, AI investment, liquidity, and the dollar—and make investment decisions within the context of their own financial plan, income needs, time horizon, and ability to tolerate risk. If you’re retired or getting close to retirement and would like a second opinion on your investment and retirement plan, use the link below to schedule a free consultation with Oak Harvest Financial Group. There’s no obligation. We’ll learn more about your goals, income needs, and concerns and help you understand whether there may be opportunities to improve your retirement plan. https://click2retire.com/lets-connect 00:00 Is the AI Boom Starting to Look Like 1999? 00:42 The New Yen Intervention Signal 01:26 This Is Bigger Than AI 02:20 The Market Framework We’ve Been Using 03:10 What We Expected for the Second Half of 2026 03:52 Earnings Are Still the Engine 05:21 Are Stocks Too Expensive? 06:49 AI’s Massive Physical Buildout 07:45 The Biggest AI Spending Risk 09:02 Why Liquidity Changes the Story 09:23 What Happened in 1999 10:25 The 2026 Yen Intervention 11:12 The Interest-Rate Risk 11:58 The Real Question Investors Should Ask 12:18 What 1999 Can—and Can’t—Tell Us 13:23 Confidence and Caution 14:16 Four Things to Watch Now 15:34 Free Retirement Plan Consultation #StockMarket #ArtificialIntelligence #RetirementPlanning

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