South Florida Mortgage Report
Forget The Rate Hike, Oil Is Driving The Boat
Forget the rate hike. Oil is driving the boat. The Fed raised rates Wednesday for the first time in three years. Twelve to nothing, not one dissent. It is the biggest thing they have done since 2023, and it is not the reason your rate is where it is. Rates don't wait for the Fed. The futures market had this hike at 90% two weeks ago, and the market prices in what it expects long before the announcement. So Craig Garcia and Bill Mei spend this one on the thing that actually has the wheel. A referral partner called Craig this week with the same question his wife had asked him: what happened to drill baby drill? We are producing more oil than at any point in our history. We are a net exporter. So why is gas still going up? The answer is a kid with a lemonade stand — the same kid from the Treasury episode in August, back with a different problem. There are twenty lemonade stands on the block. Nineteen buy lemons at the store. One kid has a lemon tree in the backyard. That's America. Then the road to the lemon warehouse washes out and store lemons go from a dollar to four dollars. His lemons didn't change. His price did. Because the kid three doors down just knocked on the door and offered him four bucks a lemon. Nothing changed in the backyard. Nothing changed in the tree. He's nine years old and he's not stupid. Then the number that ends the argument without ever taking a side on it. About 21 million barrels a day used to move through the Strait of Hormuz before the war — a fifth of everything the world burns, a quarter of all the oil that ever touches a boat. Roughly 13 million barrels a day that used to show up now don't. The United States, drilling harder than at any point in its history, pumps 13.8 million barrels a day. The hole in the world is the size of America. Also in this one: why the bond market hit a 19-year high on Wednesday and gave it all back by Thursday, why somebody lending money out for thirty years wants a Fed that raises rates rather than one that won't, and why oil is the match while the rate hike is the firewall. Warsh can't stop oil from spiking. He can stop every other business in town from using that spike as an excuse. Plus the good news nobody covered. The conforming loan limit moved early again. There is about twelve thousand dollars more available before a loan becomes a jumbo, and it is available now. Forget the rate hike. Oil is driving the boat. **CHAPTERS** 0:00 Two sentences about who is actually in charge 0:16 Welcome back, and a big week 0:34 Amendment 3 with Marty Kiar and Chip LaMarca 1:31 The Fed hikes a quarter point, twelve to nothing 1:41 So what did mortgage rates do? Basically nothing. 1:51 Rates don't wait for the Fed 2:12 The part that should have hurt — 16 of 18 see another hike 2:33 A 19-year high Wednesday, all of it back by Thursday 2:50 The bond market isn't afraid of a Fed that raises rates 3:24 "What happened to drill baby drill?" 4:13 The kid with the lemon tree 5:06 The road to the warehouse washes out 5:17 His lemons didn't change. His price did. 6:09 How bad is the road? The Strait of Hormuz. 6:33 The hole in the world is the size of America 6:53 "So even if we doubled—" We can't double. 7:25 If he can't touch oil, what's the point of a hike? 7:28 Oil is the match. The rate hike is the firewall. 9:07 One mandate is already done 9:30 The conforming loan limit moved early 10:47 "It was stuck at $417,000 for years" 11:31 Three percent down on an $871,000 house 12:03 Forget the rate hike — it's the oil Capital Partners Mortgage Services, NMLS #2332376. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org This is general information, not a commitment to lend or an offer of credit. Loan approval is subject to underwriting and program eligibility. Market commentary reflects conditions as of September 18, 2026 and changes daily. Loan limit availability varies by investor and program.
