Hosted by Unknown Host · EN
Established thought leaders with verified media credentials.
When the yield curve inverts, when payrolls soften, when the Fed chair uses the word 'transitory' again — Lucas and Luna sit down with the data to ask what it actually means. This is not a panic desk or a cheerleading session; it's a methodical reading of the economic cycle through the lens of real indicators: ISM manufacturing PMI, the Conference Board Leading Index, the Sahm Rule, credit spreads, housing starts, and the Federal Reserve's own dot-plot projections. Every episode takes one or two fresh data points from the week's releases — jobs reports, GDP revisions, consumer sentiment surveys — and traces their implications for inflation, interest rates, corporate earnings, and the probability of a recession in the next 12 months. Lucas brings the historical context and institutional knowledge; Luna presses on the human consequences: what does this mean for a small business owner's borrowing costs, for a mid-career professional's job security, for a retiree's portfolio? They name the sectors most exposed (regional banks, commercial real estate, discretionary retail) and the ones that might weather a downturn (utilities, healthcare, discount grocers). They compare the current cycle to past recessions (1990, 2001, 2008, 2020) with enough specifics to make the comparison useful, not sensational. The listener comes away with a clearer view of where the economy actually stands — and the handful of numbers they should watch next. Because if a recession is coming, the real question isn't if, but when, and how bad?
Unknown Host hosts Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean.
With the May jobs report dropping tomorrow, Lucas and Luna drill into a recession indicator most analysts overlook: the widening gap between ADP's private payroll estimate and the official BLS nonfarm payroll count. In A
Episode 33 of Recession Watch examines the surge in long-term unemployment, a lagging indicator that may be flashing a recession warning the market is ignoring. Lucas and Luna discuss the latest JOLTS data showing job op
With the May jobs report due Friday and long-term unemployment surging, Lucas and Luna dig into why the share of workers out of work for 27 weeks or more is hitting levels that historically preceded recessions. They exam
While job openings surged to 7.6 million in April—the highest in nearly two years—long-term unemployment is quietly rising. Lucas and Luna dig into the Bureau of Labor Statistics data to show why the share of jobless wor
In Episode 30 of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna examine a slow-moving but historically reliable recession indicator: the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, or SLOOS. They dig into why tightening bank lending standards
Episode 29 of Recession Watch with Fexingo dives into the VIX term structure — a recession indicator that gets less attention than the yield curve but has a strong track record. Lucas and Luna examine why the VIX at 16.3
Episode 28 of Recession Watch with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna dig into the Cass Freight Index, which just hit its lowest reading since the pandemic recovery began in 2021. While job openings surged and the VIX is calm, truc
New data shows job openings surged to 7.6 million in April, the highest in nearly two years. Lucas and Luna unpack what this means for the recession debate. Is a hot labor market the final piece for a soft landing, or do
Lucas and Luna examine a recession signal that rarely makes headlines: the rapid buildup of non-financial corporate cash reserves. With S&P 500 companies sitting on record liquidity, they ask whether this is a sign of st
For most of 2025 and into 2026, the US economy has been running a quiet but growing divergence: average hourly earnings are rising at around 4 percent annually, while productivity growth has stalled near 1 percent. In Ep
Lucas and Luna break down why corporate capital expenditure plans are flashing a subtle recession warning that most GDP-based models miss. With the latest data showing spending on equipment and structures growing at its
The labor market has been a bright spot, but JOLTS data tells a different story. Lucas and Luna examine why job openings have fallen to 6.9 million, the lowest since early 2021, despite low unemployment. They discuss wha
Lucas and Luna dig into the 'double scar' hypothesis—how the inflation trauma of 2021-2023 and the current Iran war energy shock are combining to permanently alter consumer behavior. With household gas costs up $450 per
Lucas and Luna examine how the 'double scar' from past inflation and ongoing geopolitical shocks is altering consumer behavior in 2026. With core PCE inflation at 3.3% and an extra $450 per household from Iran war energy
In this episode of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna examine how the Iran war is quietly reshaping consumer confidence and recession risk. They break down the $450 average annual hit to U.S. households from higher energy c
Episode 19 of Recession Watch with Fexingo examines how the tariffs and trade disruptions from the mid-2020s continue to reshape global supply chains, with lasting effects on inflation, corporate margins, and recession r
Episode 18 of Recession Watch tackles the $11 trillion commercial real estate market, where $2.1 trillion in loans come due by 2028. Lucas and Luna break down why office vacancy rates near 20% in major cities haven't cau
Lucas and Luna dig into a recession signal that doesn't get enough airtime: the housing market. With the 30-year fixed mortgage rate still above 7% and homebuilder sentiment at its lowest since 2023, they explore how hou
Lucas and Luna explore a blind spot in recession forecasting: small business cash flow. While headline indicators like GDP growth and unemployment look solid, data from payment processors and invoice platforms tells a di
Lucas and Luna dig into the corporate bond market, where spreads have widened 40 basis points since March despite stocks hitting new highs. They explain why high-grade and high-yield spreads are diverging, what that says
Sponsor detection runs nightly. Check back soon.
No public pitch examples yet for this show.
Generate your own personalised pitchShows with the most semantically similar episode content. Pitch one, pitch all; producers cluster.
Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean has a verified contact on file. Create a free PitchCentric account to access it and generate a personalised pitch in seconds. Research at least 3 recent episodes first and lead with a specific angle that serves their business audience.
Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean is hosted by Unknown Host. The show is categorised under Business and has published 0 episodes.
Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean regularly covers Business. It sits in the Business category.
Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean is accessible for guests with genuine business expertise. A personalised, episode-aware pitch will still outperform a generic one every time.
Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean hasn't explicitly signalled guest openness in recent episodes. That doesn't rule out pitching. your hook just needs to be especially compelling and relevant to their recent content.
Episodes of Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean average 8 minutes. a focused format where a clear narrative arc and tight preparation matter most.
Our data rates Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean's guest bar at 80/100 (Premium tier). Established thought leaders with verified media credentials. Sign in to PitchCentric to see how your own Pod Score compares against this show.
Methodology. Booking Probability™ blends Listen Score, 30-day Virality, open-to-guests detection, and Apple ratings. Data refreshed every 60 minutes. Listen Score and Booking Probability are calculated by PitchCentric. Last enriched 10 days ago.
