
Real Estate Investing Morning Show ( REI Investment in Canada )
Canadian Real Estate: 2% Vacancy Rates or 2% Interest Rates?
This or That: Real Estate Investing Edition Would you rather own a single-family rental or a duplex? Choose Edmonton or Calgary? Keep an excellent tenant below market rent or turn the property over to chase higher rent? Take 2% interest rates or a 2% vacancy rate? Today's Canadian Real Estate Investing Morning Show brings back a segment Wayne and Gabby haven't played in more than six months: This or That. The rules are simple. Wayne gives Gabby two choices. She has to pick one. Some answers are easy. Others open up much bigger conversations about how experienced investors actually think about risk, cash flow, tenants and market cycles. Single-Family Rental vs. Duplex Gabby's choice: single-family rental. Wayne and Gabby have increasingly emphasized investments that attract strong long-term tenant profiles and are simple to operate. More doors don't automatically create a better investment. The property still needs to make sense based on the complete investment. Long-Term vs. Short-Term Tenants Gabby chooses long-term. For their investment model, stability matters. Keeping a good tenant for years can reduce turnover, vacancy, cleaning, advertising and management headaches. That theme comes up again later in the show. Turnkey vs. Fixer-Upper Gabby chooses turnkey. Interestingly, she admits her answer might have been different 10 or 15 years ago. Where you are in your investing journey matters. An investor building capital and willing to contribute significant sweat equity may make a different decision than an experienced investor with an established portfolio who increasingly values simplicity and time. Edmonton vs. Calgary Edmonton. Edmonton vs. Red Deer Edmonton. Red Deer vs. Calgary Red Deer. Red Deer vs. Grande Prairie Red Deer. Gabby explains that markets she has personally watched experience dramatic boom-and-bust cycles make her uncomfortable. She prefers markets where she believes the economic and rental fundamentals provide greater long-term stability. Self-Manage or Hire a Property Manager? Gabby chooses self-management. Managing their own properties gives Wayne and Gabby direct knowledge of what's happening inside their portfolio, from tenant demand and applications to rents, maintenance and changing market conditions. Rent by the Room or Rent the Whole House? Whole house. Again, the decision comes back to simplicity and the tenant profile Wayne and Gabby prefer. Basement Suite or Garden Suite? Garden suite. Multi-unit garden suites have become one of Wayne's strongest current Edmonton real estate investing theses. Unlike basement suites, garden suites create additional above-grade housing on an existing property while potentially adding substantial rental income and equity. Refinance and Repeat or Pay Down the Mortgage? Gabby chooses refinance and repeat. For investors actively building a portfolio, strategically accessing equity can allow capital to be redeployed into additional investments rather than remaining trapped inside one property. That doesn't mean refinancing blindly. The resulting investment still has to remain financially sustainable. Student Rental or Family Rental? Family rental. Wayne and Gabby consistently favour strong, stable tenant profiles and properties people can comfortably call home for longer periods. Great Tenant Below Market Rent or Turnover for Higher Rent? Gabby chooses the stable tenant. That's an important answer. Maximum rent doesn't necessarily equal maximum profit. Turning over a good tenant can create vacancy, cleaning costs, advertising expenses and uncertainty about the next tenant. If the property still produces strong cash flow, keeping an excellent long-term tenant slightly below market rent can be financially worthwhile. Newer Property or Older Property With Value-Add Potential? Gabby chooses the newer, lower-maintenance property. Again, she acknowledges this answer reflects where she is today. Earlier in an investor's journey, creating equity through renovations can be extremely valuable. Later, simplicity and reduced maintenance can become increasingly attractive. Partner or Invest Solo? Solo, if the investor has the resources. Partnerships can provide capital, financing and expertise that make deals possible. But if all the necessary resources are already available, Gabby would rather maintain control and ownership herself. Fix and Flip or BRRRR? Neither was Gabby's preferred answer. Forced to choose, she picks the flip. Wayne and Gabby have used both strategies, but market conditions matter. A strategy that worked extremely well during one market cycle doesn't automatically remain attractive forever. $50,000 Renovation or Another Down Payment? Gabby chooses another property. If $50,000 can either be invested into renovations or used as the down payment on another strong cash-flowing asset, she'd rather expand the portfolio. And then Wayne brings out the hardest question of the morning. 2% Interest Rates or 2% Vacancy? Gabby chooses 2% interest rates . That answer splits the room. Her initial reasoning is straightforward: apply 2% financing to their existing portfolio and the reduction in mortgage expenses would dramatically increase cash flow. But a 2% vacancy rate has enormous advantages too. Low vacancy means rental supply is tight. Properties can be easier to fill, landlords may receive more applications, tenant selection can improve and upward pressure on rents can increase revenue. So which one is actually better? Wayne works through the economics. On one side, lower interest rates reduce financing costs. On the other, lower vacancy can reduce turnover losses and increase rental income. There isn't a universal answer. Why Wayne Would Take 2% Interest Rates Too After exploring both sides, Wayne ultimately leans toward 2% interest rates as well. His reasoning goes beyond lower mortgage payments. Vacancy rates are cyclical. Rental markets move between periods of undersupply and oversupply. Wayne expects those cycles and builds his portfolio to survive them. Interest rates are different. They're significantly more difficult to predict. An unusually low interest-rate environment can therefore create a temporary opportunity that investors may not see again for decades. Wayne remembers coaching investors when mortgage rates were around 2% and telling them how unusual the opportunity was. Some continued waiting because they assumed those conditions would last. They didn't. Years later, some of those same investors were finally ready to buy but now felt interest rates were too high. There was always another reason to wait. Low Interest Rates Create More Than Cash Flow Cheap financing can also stimulate the housing market. More buyers qualify. Competition increases. Property values can rise. For an investor who already owns real estate, that can create opportunities to refinance, sell, reposition assets or strategically access equity. Wayne compares it to temporary star power in Mario. You know it isn't going to last forever, so you take advantage while it's there. The Market Wayne Actually Prefers Despite the debate, Wayne and Gabby ultimately agree that neither extreme is necessarily ideal. They miss boring. Moderate interest rates. Moderate vacancy. Sustainable rent growth. Gradual appreciation. Wayne would happily take a market producing steady appreciation of roughly 3% per year without the dramatic swings Canada has experienced in recent years. Boring can be incredibly profitable when your investing horizon is measured in decades. What Edmonton Investors Should Do Now Edmonton's market isn't as simple as it once was. Wayne argues that investors can't simply buy almost anything and expect it to work. You need to understand the specific market, property type, tenant profile and supply-demand dynamics. At the same time, he sees opportunity in current conditions. If listings rise and sales soften heading into winter, that can create better purchasing opportunities for investors willing to act while other buyers hesitate. The point isn't to ignore what's happening in the market. It's to understand it and respond appropriately. The 5% Rule Rental markets will change. Vacancy will rise and fall. Interest rates will change. Rents will fluctuate. Those cycles are inevitable. That's why Wayne believes investors need enough cash flow from day one to withstand the periods when conditions aren't ideal. The 5% Rule™: (Annual Cash Flow ÷ Down Payment) × 100 5–6% = sufficient 7–9% = strong 10%+ = excellent Search "The 5% Rule by Wayne Hillier" on Amazon. Canadian Real Estate Investing Morning Show Hosted by Wayne Hillier and Gabby Hillier. Live every weekday at 7:00 AM Mountain Time from Edmonton, Alberta. Sponsors Calvin Realty – Edmonton Investor-Focused Realtor Team www.calvinrealty.ca Finngo Bookkeeping & Tax Specialized bookkeeping and tax services for Canadian real estate investors. www.finngo.com/rei Kirkwood & Brennan Mortgage Group Investor-focused mortgage planning for Canadian real estate investors. www.kbmortgages.ca keaton@kbmortgages.ca






