Macro Pulse

Weekly charts and commentaries on the global economy.

Macro Pulse is a business podcast hosted by Haver Analytics, with 165 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80.

Haver Analytics hosts Macro Pulse, a business show with 165 episodes published.

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  Episode #164

  A Benign Phase

  Oct 1, 202616 min

  Bond markets are pricing a tightening cycle. Equity markets are arguably pricing a productivity boom. Both can't be right for long. This week's Charts of the Week looks at why the current combination is so unusual — and what would end it. → Policy rates expected higher in every major economy → AI hiring spreading well beyond the US → Output accelerating, core inflation still falling → The global capex cycle has turned → Pay growth has halved while unemployment barely moved → Power costs climbing where the data centres are

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  Episode #163

  Narrow Shoulders

  Sep 24, 202616 min

  The world economy has absorbed six months of disrupted energy supply with far less damage than it could have. The reasons why are arguably narrower than they look. In our charts this week: Delivery times lengthening, freight rates climbing Growth upgrades went almost entirely to the chip exporters Record drawdown in global oil stocks Three commodity shocks, three unrelated causes US labour demand steady, UK still falling France now trades wider than Italy

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  Episode #162

  The Price of Money

  Sep 17, 202615 min

  Energy and the cost of money set the tone this week. Crude held above $100, the ten-year Treasury yield pushed through 5 per cent, and the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023. But the tightening is not coming from corporate borrowing, and the week's data from Britain, China and Korea point to very different pressures again. In our charts this week: Futures now price above the Fed's own path US companies are funding investment from cash Blue Chip marks growth up, inflation down UK pay growth and vacancies keep falling China's investment slump Korean chips are nearly half of all exports

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  Episode #161

  The Reflationary Turn

  Sep 10, 202610 min

  The global economy is tilting back towards reflation: growth is firming while inflation proves stubborn, just as a cluster of central banks prepare to meet. This week in six charts: → Global growth surprises have lately been positive and inflation surprises negative — a supportive mix for equities. → Policy uncertainty has eased, but remains high. → Most major economies now sit on the reflationary side of the cycle. → Supply-chain pressure is building again, pointing to firmer producer prices. → The Phillips curve has re-steepened across advanced economies. → The climb in bond yields is being driven by real rates, not inflation expectations.

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  Episode #160

  The Turn Towards Tightening

  Sep 3, 202614 min

  Central banks set the tone this week. After Warsh's first Jackson Hole address, and with the ECB expected to move again, the monetary tide is turning towards tightening — even as growth slows. The week in six charts: → Forecasters expect higher rates in most major economies → Shipping and supply-chain costs are rising again → Price pressure is re-emerging at the factory gate → US labour demand is shifting to where workers are scarcest. → G10 core inflation is already near target. → The real cost of capital has decisively turned.

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