
Episode #27
Rising Bond Yields, European Credit Risk and the Fed Outlook
Rising bond yields and widening European credit spreads are sharpening the focus on fiscal pressures and interest rates. Matt Jones and Neil Staines assess the implications for global markets and the key economic releases and central bank signals to watch in the week ahead. In the UK, stronger Q2 GDP sits alongside persistent energy price pressures and elevated government borrowing costs. With 30-year gilt yields reaching 6.07%, attention turns to potential contagion from European bond markets and the growth, inflation and fiscal challenges facing the 28 October budget. In Europe, French budget proposals have unsettled credit markets, with Italian spreads also widening. Could these pressures temper the European Central Bank’s hawkish tone? September ECB minutes, policy speeches and services PMIs will provide further context. The global calendar also brings Bank of Japan commentary, expectations for a December rate rise, Brazil’s election and an anticipated Reserve Bank of India hike. In the US, payrolls, ISM services and trade data will help assess the growth outlook, including how AI investment feeds through to imports. Federal Reserve meeting minutes will inform the interest rate debate, while the approaching Q3 earnings season will offer fresh evidence on earnings growth and higher funding costs. Chapters 00:00 Welcome and introductions 00:24 UK growth, inflation and gilt yields 02:14 European credit pressures and the ECB 03:11 Global central banks and Brazil’s election 03:54 US payrolls and the Fed outlook 05:26 Weekend sport 06:11 The long and short 06:42 Closing and disclaimers The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.






