Episode #98
Durable Value Ep. 98 | Coastal California & Inland West Market Paradox
Over the last 15 years, 1.6 million people have left Coastal California for the Inland West without ever leaving the state. In this episode of Durable Value, Joe and Ryan break down the paradox at the center of the Inland West: two economies sitting right next to each other, dependent on each other, and moving in opposite directions. They walk through the migration data, the affordability math driving it, and the structural forces keeping coastal costs climbing while the Inland West stays within reach. They also lay out the thesis the firm was built on: there are roughly 80 Modestos across the Inland West. Mid-sized markets nestled between larger economies, strong on quality of life and cost, and largely unnoticed by institutional capital. If you're trying to understand where population, jobs, and industry are actually headed over the next few decades, start here. Timestamps: 0:00 - Two Californias: coastal, inland, and where the thesis started 1:03 - 1.6 million people move inland without leaving the state 2:06 - Why they move: affordability, quality of life, and not renting forever 3:08 - Structural tailwinds: remote work, automation, and electrification 4:06 - The 80 Modestos thesis: Spokane, El Paso, Colorado Springs, Reno-Sparks 5:57 - Building the lattice of the West: boots on the ground in every market 7:20 - COVID shined a light on a trend that was already decades old
