Deal Flow Friday

Every Friday, join us as we dive into the latest in real estate multifamily with David Moghavem, Head of East Coast Acquisitions at Trion Properties. David invites top experts who know the ins, outs, and trends shaping the real estate multifamily market across the nation! Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just curious about where the next big opportunity might be, Deal Flow Friday brings you the weekly inside scoop on what’s hot, what’s not, and what to watch for in today’s ever-evolving real estate scene.

Deal Flow Friday is a business podcast hosted by Unknown Host, with 0 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80. PitchCentric scores this show on Booking Probability, Listen Score, and live audience signals refreshed every 24 hours.

Unknown Host hosts Deal Flow Friday, a business show with 0 episodes published.

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  Episode #58

  Beyond Vibe Coding: Adam Rian - AKTUS AI

  Aug 7, 202649 min

  Everyone in real estate has had the weekend where they vibe coded a tool and felt like a genius. Adam Rian's take: that feeling is real, and it's also where most of these projects die. Adam is the founder and CEO of AKTUS AI, a Silicon Valley company building custom AI systems for finance and real estate — and a firm Trion has been working with directly. He has a PhD in computer science, spent 15 years in AI and machine learning, and was product lead for data and ML at Twitter before co-founding Flowcode. In this episode, David and Adam get into why out-of-the-box AI keeps failing on real estate work, what actually separates a prototype from a production system, and why Adam thinks the org chart itself is the thing AI ends up rewriting. What we get into Why generic AI can't do real estate. The models were trained on public data. Real estate runs on proprietary data, domain judgment, and a secret sauce that was never on the internet — and it's multidisciplinary on top of that: finance, legal, architectural, relationship-driven. Vibe coding: 100% and 0%. Adam's line is blunt. Vibe coding is 100% the right tool for prototyping and requirement gathering — it replaced weeks of whiteboarding and Figma mockups. For production code, it's 0%. None of it survives. He explains why, and it comes down to edge cases and maintainability. The maintenance trap. David's own experience: building something that works, then spending half your day keeping it alive instead of doing the job. The productivity gain never shows up. Digital teammates, not software. You're not buying an application. You're onboarding something you train, give feedback to, and measure — the same way you'd manage a first-year analyst. How you actually measure success. Booking a meeting is not the same as booking the right meeting. Adam walks through how AKTUS defines KPIs with a client during onboarding, and why measurement has to be designed in from day one rather than bolted on. Why AI hallucinates, explained simply. Context windows, the myth of the million-token window (only about 10% of it is effective), and why AI forgets the middle of a document the same way you forget the middle of a novel. Context engineering — and hiding data on purpose. Sometimes the right move is keeping data away from the model. Adam explains the system AKTUS built to ingest thousands of leases, zoning docs, and a 60-tab underwriting model without the whole thing falling apart. Five years to autopilot. Today AI recommends and a senior analyst edits. Adam's estimate for when AI makes the call itself — and why the answer depends entirely on how much high-quality decision data you've logged. Can AI invent something better than Excel? AKTUS is training AI to operate inside Excel. The next frontier is AI inventing the next abstraction layer entirely. Inside the Trion project. David breaks down the lead gen platform they're building with AKTUS — power-ranking properties against portfolio performance, drafting genuinely customized outreach, and killing spray and pray. Plus why AI drafts the email but doesn't send it. Overhyped and underhyped. Adam's answer: like the internet, AI is overhyped in the short term and underhyped in the long term. Specifically overhyped right now — drag-and-drop, one-shot deal screening. AI rewrites the org chart. Our org charts exist because of how we educate people: finance degree, legal degree, architecture degree. If AI makes multidisciplinary work achievable, do you still need those departments? Adam's roadmap for AKTUS is built on the bet that you don't. Chapters: 00:17 Introduction to AKTUS AI 04:35 "Out-of-the-Box" AI Flaws in CRE 07:19 The Role of Custom AI in Real Estate 10:52 Where Vibe Coding Ends and Real Engineering Begins 18:01 Iterative Learning and Decision-Making in AI 18:31 Measuring Success in AI Implementations 23:27 Future of AI in Financial Modeling 25:04 Five Years Until AI Edits the Model Itself 30:18 Real-Use Cases of AKTUS AI: 1,000s of Docs, 60-Tab Models, & More. 35:42 Context Management and AI Limitations 39:37 Digital Teammates: Redefining Roles in Real Estate 44:49 Overhyped vs. Underhyped AI in Real Estate 46:51 The Evolution of Organizational Structures with AI www.dealflowfriday.com IG: @dealflowfriday X:@dealflowfriday

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  Episode #57

  Can't Build in LA? Buy in LA - Paul Schon - SDG

  Jul 24, 202635 min

  In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem sits down with veteran Los Angeles developer Paul Schon of SDG to discuss why the current market favors buying existing multifamily properties rather than pursuing ground-up development. After more than 15 years and 30 projects, Paul explains why rising construction and financing costs, extended timelines, inspection delays, Measure ULA and operational challenges have forced many experienced developers to pause new projects. Paul shares the details of a particularly compelling acquisition: buying back a property he originally developed and sold in 2021 for nearly 30% less than the previous sale price—and below what it cost to build before the pandemic. David and Paul break down why newer Los Angeles multifamily assets can now offer attractive going-in yields, positive leverage and limited new supply, despite the city’s political and regulatory risks. The conversation also explores the importance of in-house property management, the operational challenges of co-living, the risks surrounding ED1 affordable-housing projects and the difficulties of underwriting an exit without established comparable sales. Paul also offers advice for aspiring developers, including starting with smaller SB 9 or ADU projects, learning property operations and bringing valuable opportunities to experienced developers as a potential partner. Chapters 00:17 Introduction: Paul Schon - SDG 01:30 Waving the White Flag on Ground-Up Development 05:18 Where are the Bottlenecks in LA Development? 08:37 Buying Back His Own Building at a Discount 13:21 The Bull Case for LA 20:33 What Went Wrong With Co-Living? 24:59 Breaking Down ED1 30:44 SB9 (The ADU Play) www.dealflowfriday.com IG: @dealflowfriday X: @dealflowfriday

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  Episode #56

  [Panel] Global Economic Headwinds & Its Impact on CRE: IMN - Newport RI

  Jul 10, 202635 min

  In this episode of Deal Flow Friday , David Moghavem, Chief Investment Officer of Trion Properties, shares a live panel conversation from IMN’s Real Estate Private Funds Summer event in Newport, Rhode Island. The panel, titled “Global Economic Headwinds: Industry Leaders Dissect Macro Trends Reshaping CRE Valuations,” brought together leaders across real estate investment management, hospitality, multifamily operations, and fund structuring to discuss how capital is being underwritten and deployed in a market where returns can no longer rely on falling rates or cap rate compression. The conversation features Emi Adachi , Managing Director and Global Head of Investment Research at Heitman, Douglas J. Elsbeck , Partner at King & Spalding, Uma Moriarity , Senior Investment Strategist and Global Head of Sustainability at CenterSquare Investment Management, and Stephany Chen , Head of Investor Relations at Trinity Investments. Together, the panel breaks down how today’s higher-for-longer interest rate environment is reshaping underwriting, capital deployment, and investor expectations across real estate sectors. Uma explains why the valuation disconnect between public REIT markets, private appraisals, and transaction pricing continues to create friction in capital flows. With cap rate compression no longer driving returns, investors are being forced to focus on asset-level execution, durable cash flow, and hands-on management. David brings the multifamily operator perspective, highlighting how inflation, shelter cost data, and renter stress are showing up differently on the ground than in headline numbers. He discusses the shift from cap stack distress to operational distress, with owners now paying closer attention to bad debt, delinquency, rent roll deterioration, deferred maintenance, and true day-one yield. In this environment, he argues that operators must go back to the basics: positive leverage, realistic rent assumptions, and disciplined underwriting. Stephany offers the hospitality perspective, explaining why hotels can act as an inflation hedge through daily rate adjustments, while also emphasizing the importance of yield management, labor costs, diversified demand drivers, and local operating expertise. She also discusses how international and domestic investors are approaching U.S. hospitality differently in today’s geopolitical and capital markets environment. The panel also covers how institutional investors are changing the way they access real estate. Uma and Doug discuss the move away from traditional commingled funds toward joint ventures, separate accounts, sidecars, club deals, and other structures that give investors more agency over capital deployment. The discussion closes with a look at regulation, rent stabilization, political risk, and why operators with vertically integrated platforms may be best positioned to navigate the next phase of the cycle. Overall, this episode explores a central theme for today’s market: when falling rates and cap rate compression are no longer available to bail out a deal, returns have to be earned through disciplined underwriting, operational execution, and a clear understanding of risk. www.dealflowfriday.com IG: @dealflowfriday X: @dealflowfriday

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  Episode #55

  Multifamily Operator POVs: Reed Goossens - RSN

  Jun 26, 202633 min

  In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem sits down with Reed Goossens for an in-person operator-to-operator conversation on the current state of multifamily investing, capital markets, and where opportunity is starting to emerge after the reset. David shares the story of Trion Properties, from its roots buying non-performing notes and REO multifamily during the GFC to building a vertically integrated platform with a national footprint across California, Oregon, Colorado, the Southeast, and Texas. The conversation explores how Trion has evolved through market cycles, why vertical integration and property management have become even more important, and how operators are navigating the cracks now showing across both capital stacks and operations. David and Reed dig into the post-2022 multifamily reset, explaining why markets are finally being priced differently again after years of compressed cap rates and cheap debt. They discuss why going-in yield, day-one cash flow, positive leverage, and conservative rent growth assumptions matter more today than speculative value-add upside. They also unpack the difference between cap stack distress and operational distress, and why the next wave of forced sales may depend on whether property-level fundamentals continue to weaken. The episode also covers how operators are evaluating today’s market opportunities across the Sun Belt, West Coast, and secondary markets. David explains why Trion is focused on supply-demand fundamentals, market-specific strategies, and assets that can stand on their own without relying on aggressive rent growth or a quick refinance. Toward the end of the conversation, David shares why AI is one of the areas he is most excited about over the next six to twelve months. He discusses how Trion is using AI to connect underwriting data, CRM history, meeting notes, email, and market intelligence to create better workflows and sharper investment theses. Reed and David also explore how AI is lowering the barrier to building custom tools, improving lead generation, and helping operators find efficiencies that previously required expensive software development. This episode is a candid look inside how two experienced multifamily operators are thinking through today’s reset, what they are watching closely, and why the next cycle will reward discipline, creativity, and operational excellence. Chapters: 00:00 Introduction to Trion Properties and David Moghavem 02:09 The Evolution of Trion Properties 06:24 Market Strategies and Portfolio Diversification 11:20 Navigating the Multifamily Market Reset 22:30 The Role of AI in Real Estate Investment 31:42 Conclusion and Future Outlook www.dealflowfriday.com IG: @dealflowfriday X: @dealflowfriday

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  Episode #54

  My Take on AI in CRE [from the AI for CRE Collective Podcast]

  Jun 12, 202640 min

  In this episode, David Moghavem joins Quinn Edwards on the AI for CRE Collective Podcast to discuss the current state of multifamily, the next wave of distress, and how AI is reshaping the way real estate operators make decisions. David shares his journey from joining Trion Properties as an entry-level analyst in 2015 to helping scale the firm into a vertically integrated multifamily owner-operator with more than 6,000 apartment units across multiple states. He explains how Trion’s strategy has evolved from California and Oregon into a broader national footprint, including growth markets across the Southeast, while staying focused on value-add multifamily in workforce and first-ring suburban markets. The conversation dives into today’s multifamily environment, where capital stack distress is creating new opportunities for experienced operators. David explains why he believes the market is becoming increasingly bifurcated, with high-quality, “perfect box” deals still attracting aggressive capital, while older Class B and workforce housing assets are seeing yield expansion and less institutional competition. He also discusses why bridge loan maturities, lender workouts, and operational stress may create a generational buying opportunity for groups that know how to operate through complexity. A major theme of the episode is AI’s growing role in commercial real estate. David breaks down how Trion is using AI across acquisitions, operations, data analysis, and workflows. He explains how years of proprietary deal tracking in Dealpath, combined with tools like Claude, Granola, Outlook integrations, and MCP systems, are allowing the firm to synthesize internal data in ways that were not possible before. Rather than just using AI for productivity, David sees the real opportunity in using AI to think differently, make better investment decisions, and unlock insights from proprietary data. David and Quinn also discuss AI in property management, including the use of tools like Elise AI, centralization, Yardi Virtuoso, and portfolio-level data analysis. David explains that owners and operators today need to think more like tech companies, with real estate as the product and data-driven decision-making as the operating system. The episode closes with a broader discussion on the “art and science” of real estate. David argues that AI does not replace the relationship-driven, human side of the business. Instead, it frees real estate professionals to spend more time on the parts of the business that matter most: relationships, networking, property tours, broker conversations, lender relationships, and brand building. David also shares how launching Deal Flow Friday has helped him build relationships, accelerate his own AI adoption, and create value for Trion. In an age where knowledge is becoming increasingly commoditized, he believes brand, relationships, and execution will matter more than ever. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to the Series and Guest 02:23 David Movhavam's Background and Experience 04:35 Current Market Trends in Real Estate 12:05 Navigating Non-Performing Loans and Market Challenges 20:21 The Role of AI in Real Estate Investment 30:14 Balancing Art and Science in Real Estate 36:20 Closing Thoughts and Future Opportunities www.dealflowfriday.com IG: @dealflowfriday X: @dealflowfriday ORIGINALLY RECORDED FROM THE AI FOR CRE PODCAST: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaELi6ZrViI&t=6s

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