Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

Beating the closing line is the best long-run sign you're betting well, but a lot of what gets called CLV isn't, and even great numbers lose all the time. I used years of NFL and college football line data to show what...

Everyone says AI can help you win at sports betting, but there's a right way and a wrong way to use it. We cover why more context beats a better prompt, why you should always check the steps behind an answer, and how to...

Sharp bettor Thon Misser breaks down the MLB same game parlay angle that kickstarted his betting career: a pricing bug that turned round number totals into a free half run. He explains how adding any second leg to an...

Victor Wembanyama put his foot down this week, declaring he will never endorse a prediction market or sportsbook. That bold stance opens up a massive conversation about where the line should be drawn when athletes take...

Teams playing on Thursday after a Sunday overtime game are 7-29 against the spread since 2000. I’m not a trends guy, so here’s exactly how I work through a stat like this, step by step: checking how it’s counted...

NFL Week 3 delivered chaos, the Steelers upset the 2-0 Bengals in Pittsburgh, Josh Allen and the Bills survived five turnovers to beat the Chargers, and Drake Maye's turnover problems continued in New England. Over in...

Thon Misser joins Off Script to break down the NBA season simulator he's been rebuilding this offseason, how it prices different tiers of players, and what changes after a summer that saw the Raptors add Kawhi Leonard...

Can sharps actually beat a prediction market maker? Chris "Flup" Dierkes breaks down what market makers really do, why new exchanges need in-house liquidity, how auto-movers and traders manage directional risk when the...

NFL Week 2 sports betting reaction gets broken down live on Circle Back, alongside a New York Times report alleging a sportsbook used an AI model to score customers by expected losses and aim bonuses and free bets at...

A College Football Playoff simulator reveals the real tension in sports betting: when do you trust an algorithm's clean number, and when does a sharp bettor's read on one isolated spot beat the model? Shipper joins...

The NFL, under Commissioner Roger Goodell, has taken a major step in its evolving relationship with prediction markets, and the crew breaks down what it means for sports betting going forward. Week 1 of the NFL season...

The LeBron James next-team market became the second-largest market prediction platforms have ever seen, trailing only the World Cup, with over $240 million traded. Peanut, aka Peanut Bettor on Twitter, joins Circles Off...

Do quants ignore motivation? I tested the most famous motivation angles in football, revenge games and blowout bounce backs, against 20+ years of real NFL closing lines. One of them was legitimately profitable. Then the...

Sharp bettor and responsible gaming advocate Isaac Rose-Berman joins Circles Off at BetBash to break down a tennis edge hiding in plain sight. Because of the way tennis scoring works, a player who falls behind by two...

In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, China joins Circles Off to break down one of the most unique player prop edges of the last decade. Starting around 2016, China built a reputation moving college football player...