
Episode #381
Hikes, Hypocrisy and Hard Money — Bizarro World 381
The free version of Episode 381 of Investing in Bizarro World is now live. Kevin Warsh finally raised interest rates by 25 basis points after the bond market effectively forced the Fed’s hand. Oil had climbed back above $100, Treasury yields were surging and the probability of a hike jumped from roughly 50% several weeks ago to more than 90% immediately before the meeting. Stocks initially sold off, but the metals proved surprisingly resilient. Gold held support near $4,240 before rebounding toward $4,345. Nick explains why reclaiming approximately $4,375–$4,380 would restore the near-term bullish setup—and why $4,000 remains the new floor if gold breaks lower. Silver continues to lag because of its exposure to slowing industrial demand. Copper, meanwhile, bounced back to approximately $6.52 per pound and currently has the strongest technical setup of the three. The warning signs extend beyond metals. The dollar index moved back above 100, the two-year Treasury approached 4.7%, the 10-year briefly exceeded 5% and mortgage rates climbed above 7%. Third-quarter GDP could still approach 4%, but growth may fall sharply later in 2026 and into 2027. At the same time, capital continues pouring into quality resource companies. A recent Private Placement Intel opportunity attracted more than $1 million within days, financing paper is being absorbed without crushing share prices and sellers are disappearing from some of the better copper and precious-metals stories. With conference season beginning and news flow accelerating, the resource supercycle is becoming harder to ignore. Then there is oil. West Texas crude trades above $100 per barrel. Diesel has reached approximately $7.39 per gallon in Spokane and more than $5 in parts of Texas. California pumps are reportedly hitting their $9.99 display limits, some stations are running out of diesel and ground beef has climbed above $6 per pound. Iran continues threatening an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with no obvious resolution to the conflict. The resulting energy shock is squeezing farms, trucking companies, supply chains and consumers already struggling with food and housing costs. America last balanced its federal budget in 2001, when the national debt was approximately $6 trillion. It has now surpassed $40 trillion. Millionaire households continue multiplying while millions of other Americans struggle to afford basic necessities. The K-shaped economy is becoming increasingly stretched. Nick and Gerardo also examine another week of political dysfunction. James Talarico is challenging Ken Paxton while Republicans publicly turn against their own nominee. Cannabis rescheduling appears to be moving closer, and the MSOS ETF is beginning to reflect that possibility. They also discuss Gavin Newsom’s staged creek interview, a fatal stabbing near Gerardo’s home, racist commentary from Texas Railroad Commission candidate Bo French, the White House’s taxpayer-funded online arcade, reports about Kash Patel changing FBI applicant standards and Macklemore’s removal from Ed Sheeran’s tour. Higher rates. Higher oil. Harder money. And enough political hypocrisy to fill another Fourth Turning. Subscribe to the Bizarro World channel: / @bizarroworld Read the full article + listen here: https://bizarroworld.com Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 1:52 Macro Musings: Warsh Hikes. Bond Vigilantes Win. Gold Holds. Copper Leads. 11:10 Market Takes: Capital Floods In. Oil Tops $100. Diesel Soars. The K Widens. 24:05 Bizarro Banter: Cannabis Rescheduling. Paxton Revolt. White House Arcade. Macklemore Canceled. 45:55 Premium Portfolio Picks: (You need to subscribe to Bizarro World Live to get this section) Click here: https://bit.ly/4y8krP2 If you’re trying to understand why the Fed is hiking into an oil shock, hard assets refuse to break and Washington keeps turning dysfunction into spectacle, you’re in the right place.

