Holders' Realized Losses exceeded the 2022 peak by 19%
Jul 24, 202626mEp. 219
We compare the current bear market phase with the 2022 cycle through realized profit and loss.
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A five-day-a-week morning podcast on Bitcoin market structure, on-chain data, ETF flows, derivatives, macro risk, and key signals for active investors. Each episode turns the latest Adler AM brief into a clear, data-driven audio update. Not financial advice.
Unknown Host hosts Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief.
We compare the current bear market phase with the 2022 cycle through realized profit and loss.
The US spot market is emerging from a period of maximum pressure. The Coinbase discount has not disappeared, but it has narrowed significantly, while the return of positive ETF flows confirms that the market structure is
This brief examines what is happening inside the volatility compression. Low volatility is neutral on its own - its meaning depends on the direction of positioning. Leverage is currently declining, so the risk of a sharp
This brief examines the balance between supply and demand through exchange flows. As long as stablecoins continue to leave exchanges and Bitcoin does not enter an accumulation phase, the price lacks the fuel needed for a
This brief examines how weak inflows of new capital coincide with short-term holders realizing losses. Young coins account for a minimal share of realized capitalization, STH SOPR remains below 1.0, and both indicators h
Bitcoin LTH supply hit a record 16.34M BTC, with 371K absorbed in 30 days, while CDD 30D stays low at 313M. Scarcity is building, demand is not.
This brief explains how the local bearish regime shifted to a bullish one and why the current move appears confirmed.
We examine what powered the daily move: aggressive market buying or the forced closing of short positions.
The market has remained in unrealized loss territory for six weeks. STH moved underwater first and were also the first to begin recovering, while the aggregate Adjusted NUPL and LTH readings reached their lows later. All
The price decline is accompanied by a sustained reduction in open interest and a weakening pressure index. At this point, it looks more like positions are being closed and excess leverage is being flushed out than a stru
Buying pressure is once again outweighing selling pressure at the lows, repeating the February pattern, while price is holding near the Cost Basis of the freshest holders. The logic of this brief is simple: compressed se
This brief explains why initiative in futures still remains with sellers despite a local rebound attempt. Cumulative buy delta is shrinking quickly, and any spike in demand is immediately absorbed. That confirms local we
A brief on how stablecoin inflows - the main fuel of the crypto market - have dried up over the past two months. The logic is simple: without fresh dollar liquidity, BTC rebounds stay short-lived and downside pressure re
The first major net BTC sale by Strategy in several years and the futures market's reaction to the announcement. The sale was driven by obligations, not by a change in strategy. Price held up, but derivatives positioning
The futures market has turned toward greater willingness to take risk: the gap between futures and spot has moved back into positive territory, and the positioning index has shifted back above zero.
This brief covers the first BUY signal in a long time from Net UTXO Supply Ratio and whether the Supply in Loss metric confirms the start of the final phase of capitulation. The logic is simple: the fast indicator has al
A brief on why the current bounce looks fragile. The logic is simple: buyers are pressing the market aggressively, but without growth in open interest the move has no fuel for a sustainable breakout.
The current drawdown looks heavier than February's: exchange inflows have increased, while SOPR below 1.0 shows that the market is realizing losses on average. Until both metrics turn, any recovery remains unconfirmed.
A brief on BTC approaching the LTH cost basis and why long-term holder behavior points to the market nearing the final phase of the bear cycle.
A brief on how demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs has completely dried up and turned into a sustained outflow. As long as momentum stays near historical lows, the market has no institutional fuel for an upside reversal.
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