Hosted by Pasquale Cirillo · 🇺🇸 US · EN · 18 episodes
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A podcast about risk, probability, philosophy and data science. Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support .
Pasquale Cirillo hosts The Logic of Risk, a science show with 18 episodes published.
In this episode we introduce moments, the bedrock of studying random variables and risk. We begin with a concise overview, then zero in on simple (raw) moments, the foundation upon which central and standardized moments
In this episode, we dive into the critical difference between extremes and outliers. As we will soon discover, understanding this distinction is vital for accurate modeling, especially when assessing (tail) risk. We'll e
In this episode, building on the cumulative distribution function F (CDF) introduced in Episode 15, we define the quantile function Q, the survival function S, and the probability density function f (PDF). We then explor
In this episode, we continue laying the foundations of our mathematical treatment of risk. In particular, we introduce the cumulative distribution function, or CDF, as a tool for describing the probabilistic behavior of
In this episode, we answer the question we left hanging at the end of Episode 13: What is a sigma-algebra? We will explore the properties of a sigma-algebra and explain why we want our event space to be one. Next, we wil
In this episode, we come back to the definition of risk and start discussing how we can measure it. That is why we need to introduce risk measures. But that requires us to be more formal and speak about the sample space
In this episode, we conclude our overview of the various schools of thought on probability. We begin by examining the logicist perspectives of Keynes, Jeffreys, and Jaynes before transitioning to Kolmogorov's axiomatic d
This episode introduces logicism, examining how modern logic informs our understanding of probability. Can logicism be considered as a bridge between probabilistic objectivism and subjectivism? What did Wittgenstein thin
In this episode, we delve into subjective probability by drawing on Bruno de Finetti’s ideas. We show how viewing probability as a fair bet may lead to coherent estimates. We discuss how de Finetti challenges the circula
We introduce the subjectivist perspective on probability, featuring thinkers like Bruno de Finetti, Frank Ramsey, and Leonard Savage, who argue that probability is not an objective entity but rather something we invent t
In this episode of The Logic of Risk, we continue our discussion on the propensity interpretation of probability. We start by showing how Popper thought propensity could cope with the peculiar uncertainty of quantum mech
In this episode, we move beyond the classical and frequentist definitions of probability to explore the propensity interpretation. We examine how Peirce and Popper viewed probability as an objective tendency of random ph
In this episode, we delve deeper into the frequentist definition of probability, showing how probabilities emerge from limiting relative frequencies. We discuss why this approach can be useful for mass random phenomena b
Welcome to the fifth episode of The Logic of Risk. After introducing the classical definition, we begin a review of the main schools of thought in probability. We’ll see that some are objectivist and others are subjectiv
In this episode, we provide an introduction to probability by exploring the classical definition, a concept rooted in the Renaissance and often used for pedagogical purposes. While historically significant, it has limita
After defining risk as the possibility of harm in Episode 1 and exploring the harm profile in Episode 2, we now turn our attention to the concept of possibility. To that end, we introduce probability as a way to assess p
In this episode, we dive into the concept of harm, a fundamental component of risk—how can we understand, measure, and even rank it? We will break down its key dimensions and talk about a possible hierarchy. Starting tod
Welcome to Episode 1 of The Logic of Risk. In this introductory segment, we will begin by defining “risk” and uncovering why it’s far more nuanced than most people typically think. Are you ready to take the risk? Become
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The Logic of Risk is hosted by Pasquale Cirillo. The show is categorised under science (mathematics) and has published 18 episodes.
The Logic of Risk has published 18 episodes.
The Logic of Risk regularly covers science, mathematics. It sits in the science category, with a mathematics focus.
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Episodes of The Logic of Risk average 17 minutes. a focused format where a clear narrative arc and tight preparation matter most.
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